Below these tables are polls that take into account the gender gap between Obama and Romney.
In 2008, based on exit polls, Obama's gender gap advantage over McCain was 14 points.
As a prediction model, whomever wins the gender gap swing from the previous election wins the presidency...
PAR Poll Average (Post Denver Debate):
Women: Obama +7%
Men: Romney +8.6%
Gap Swing: Romney +15.6%
Poll Indicator for PAR POTUS Prediction Model: Romney
11/5/12 Monmouth/SurveyUSA
Women: Obama 51-46%; W Gap = Obama +5
Men: Romney 51-44%; M Gap = Romney +7
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +16
11/4/12 CNN/ORC
Women: Obama 53-45%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 53-44%; M Gap = Romney +9
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
11/4/12 Pew
Women: Obama 53-40%; W Gap = Obama +13
Men: Romney 50-42%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +9
11/4/12 Battleground/GWU
Women: Obama 53-45%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 52-44%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +14
11/2/12 ABC/WaPo
Women: Obama 50-48%; W Gap = Obama +2
Men: Romney 51-45%; M Gap = Romney +6
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +18
10/31/12 FOXN
Women: Obama 50-42%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 51-42%; M Gap = Romney +9
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/30/12 CBS/NYT
Women: Obama 52-44%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 51-44%; M Gap = Romney +7
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +13
10/29/12 Pew
Women: Obama 50-44%; W Gap = Obama +6
Men: Romney 51-44%; M Gap = Romney +7
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/29/12 Politico/GWU
Women: Obama 54-43%; W Gap = Obama +11
Men: Romney 55-43%; M Gap = Romney +12
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/25/12 AP
Women: Obama 47-47%; W Gap = even
Men: Romney 47-42%; M Gap = Romney +5
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +19
10/22/12 Monmouth/SurveyUSA
Women: Obama 49-45%; W Gap = Obama +4
Men: Romney 51-40%; M Gap = Romney +11
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +21
10/21/12 NBC/WSJ:
Women: Obama 51-43%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 53-43%; M Gap = Romney +10
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +16
10/19/12 Hartford Courant/UCONN
Women: Obama 55-38%; W Gap = Obama +17
Men: Romney 53-41%; M Gap = Romney +12
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +9
10/16/12 Hempstead Debate
10/15/12 IBD/TIPP
Women: Obama 49-45%; W Gap = Obama +4
Men: Romney 49-44%; M Gap = Romney +5
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/11/12 Monmouth/SurveyUSA
Women: Obama 48-46%; W Gap = Obama +2
Men: Romney 49-44%; M Gap = Romney +5
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +17
10/10/2012 FOXN
Women: Obama 49-41%; W Gap = Obama +8
Men: Romney 51-41%; M Gap = Romney +10
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +16
10/10/2012 IBD/TIPP
Women: Obama 50-36%; W Gap = Obama +14
Men: Romney 57-42%; M Gap = Romney +15
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/8/2012 Pew
Women: even 47-47%; W Gap = even
Men: Romney 51-43%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +22
10/3/2012 Denver Debate
10/2/2012 National Journal
Women: Obama 51-44%; W Gap = Obama +7
Men: Romney 50-42%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +15
10/2/2012 Quinnipiac
Women: Obama 56-38%; W Gap = Obama +18
Men: Romney 52-42%; M Gap = Romney +10
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +6
10/1/2012 CNN/ORC
Women: Obama 53-44%; W Gap = Obama +9
Men: Romney 50-47%; M Gap = Romney +3
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +8
9/27/2012 USAToday/Gallup
Women: Obama 57-35%; W Gap = Obama +22
Men: Romney 51-35%; M Gap = Romney +16
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +8
9/10/2012 IBD/CSM/TIPP
Women: Obama 51-40%; W Gap = Obama +11
Men: Romney 48-40%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +11
8/27/2012 ABC/Wash Post
Women: Obama 49-43%; W Gap = Obama +6
Men: Romney 51-42%; M Gap = Romney +9
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +17
8/23/2012 FOXN
Women: Obama 48-42%; W Gap = Obama +6
Men: Romney 48-40%; M Gap = Romney +8
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +16
8/11/2012 IBD/CSM/TIPP
Women: Obama 46-37%; W Gap = Obama +9
Men: Obama 47-41%; M Gap = Obama +6
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Obama +1
8/8/2012 CNN/ORC
Women: Obama 53-44%; W Gap = Obama +9
Men: Obama 51-45%; M Gap = Obama +6
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Obama +1
7/11/2012 Quinnipiac
Women: Obama 47-40%; W Gap = Obama +7
Men: Romney 51-39%; M Gap = Romney +12
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +19
5/22/201 WSJ/NBC
Women: Obama 53-38%; W Gap = Obama +17
Men: Romney 49-40%; M Gap = Romney +9
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +6
5/14/2012 CBS/NYT
Women: Romney 46-44%
Men: Romney 45-42%
W Gap = Romney +2
M Gap = Romney +3
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +19
5/7/2012 IDB/CSM/TIPP
Women: Obama 49-40%
Men: Romney 46-43%
W Gap = Obama +9
M Gap = Romney +3
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +8
5/6/2012 Battleground
W Gap = Obama +7 (swing -6 from 2008)
M Gap = Romney +7 (swing +8 from 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage = Romney +14
5/3/2012 Quinnipiac*
Women: Obama 49-38%
Men: Romney 46-40%
W Gap = Obama +11 (swing -2 from 2008)
M Gap = Romney +6 (swing +7 from 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage = Romney +9
*this poll only takes into account 3 swing states
FL:
Women: Obama 44-42%
Men: Romney 46-42%
OH:
Women: Obama 50-37%
Men: Romney 48-38%
PA:
Women: Obama 52-35%
Men: Romney 44-41%
4/18/2012 CBS/NYT
Obama leads Romney among women 49-43%
(married women favor Romney over Obama 49-42%)
Romney leads Obama among men 49-43%
W Gap = Obama +6 (swing -7 from 2008)
M Gap = Romney +6 (swing +7 from 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 to 2012 = Romney +14
4/17/2012 Pew
Obama leads Romney among women 53-40%
Romney leads Obama among men 50-44%
W Gap = Obama +13 (swing of 0 from Obama 2008)
M Gap = Romney +6 (swing of +7 from R 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 to 2012 = Romney +7
4/16/2012 CNN
Obama leads Romney among women, 55-39%
Obama leads Romney among men, 49-46%
W Gap = Obama +16 (swing of +3 from Obama 2008)
M Gap = Obama +3 (swing of +2 from Obama 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 to 2012 = Obama +5
4/12/2012 FOXN
Obama leads Romney among women, 49-41%
Romney leads Obama among men 52-38%
W Gap = Obama +8 (swing of -5 from Obama 2008)
M Gap = Romney +14 (swing of +15 from R 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 to 2012 = Romney +20
4/10/2012 ABC/WaPo
Obama leads Romney among women, 57-38%
Romney leads Obama among men 52-44%
W Gap = Obama +19 (swing of +6 from Obama 2008)
M Gap = Romney +8 (swing of +9 from R 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Romney +3
3/26/2012 Gallup/USA Today*
Obama leads Romney among women 56-38%
Romney leads Obama among men 48-47%
W Gap = Obama +18 (swing of +5 from Obama 2008)
M Gap = Romney +1 (swing of +2 from R 2008)
Gap Swing Advantage from 2008 = Obama +3
*this poll only takes into account 12 swing states
