Friday, August 5, 2016

Election 2016 Campaign Photo Album


August

Clinton in Hamptons, 8/28, 267 days without press conference
















Clinton, Kimmel Live 8/22

















Fairfield, CT Trump rally 8/13























Trump supporter to CNN at FL rally 8/11
















Mateen at Clinton event 8/8




















Daytona 8/3, AP


Commerce City, CO 8/3









 
 
Drudge state of the race 8/4
 
 
 
 


Monday, August 1, 2016

Campaign Rally Tally, Clinton vs Trump...


Starting from August 1, 2016...


Trump:   31
Clinton:  11


8/30

Trump:
Everett, WA

8/27

Trump:
Des Moines, IA

8/25

Trump:
Manchester, NH

Clinton:
Reno, NV

8/24

Trump:
Tampa, FL  (4,000+)
Jackson, MS  (5,000+)

8/23

Trump:
Austin, TX  (8,000+)

8/22

Trump:
Akron, OH  (6,000+)

8/20

Trump:
Fredericksburg, VA  (4,000+)

8/19

Trump:
Dimondale, MI  (6,000+)

8/18

Trump:
Charlotte, NC  (4,000+)

8/17

Clinton:
Cleveland, OH

8/16

Trump:
West Bend, WI

Clinton:
Philadelphia, PA 

8/15

Trump:
Youngstown, OH

Clinton:
Scranton, PA

8/13

Trump:
Fairfield, CT  (4,000+)

8/12

Trump:
Erie, PA  (9,000+)
Altoona, PA (speaks to "overflow room" of 2,000 beforehand)

8/11

Trump:
Miami Beach, FL
Kissimmee, FL  (6,000+)

Clinton:
Warren, MI

8/10

Trump:
Abingdon, VA
Fort Lauderdale, FL  (10,000+)

Clinton:
Des Moines, IA

8/9

Trump:
Wilmington, NC  (7,000+)
Fayetteville, NC

8/8

Trump:
Detroit, MI

Clinton:
St. Petersburg, FL
Kissimmee, FL

8/6

Trump:
Windham, NH

8/5

Trump:
Des Moines, IA
Green Bay, WI

8/4:

Trump:
Portland, ME

Clinton:
Las Vegas, NV

8/3:

Trump:
Daytona Beach, FL  (8,000+)
Jacksonville, FL   (12,000+)

Clinton:
Commerce City, CO

8/2:

Trump:
Ashburn, VA

8/1:

Trump:
Columbus, OH
Harrisburg, PA   (6,000+)

Clinton:
Omaha, NE





Tuesday, June 28, 2016

PPP Public Policy Polling, Phone vs Internet, Methodolgy, Mode...


In 2012 presidential race, PPP used only live phone interviews to predict the outcome.

In 2016, PPP is using 80% phone interview and 20% internet survey to predict the race.

The difference is noteworthy:



August 17

Missouri

Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 43%
Internet:  Clinton 40 - Trump 34%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 42%


August 16

Texas

Phone:  Trump 56 - Clinton 39%
Internet:  Clinton 65 - Trump 26%
Outcome:  Trump 50 - Clinton 44%  


Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 49 - Trump 20 - Johnson 2 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Trump 44 - Clinton 38 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


August 9

North Carolina

Phone:  Trump 51 - Clinton 43%
Internet:  Clinton 61 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - Trump 46%

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 40 - Johnson 7 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 18 - Johnson 9 - Stein 1%
Outcome:  Clinton 43 - Trump 41 - Johnson 7 - Stein 2%


August 1

Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 52 - Clinton 44%
Internet:  Clinton 71 - Trump 20%
Outcome:  Clinton 49 - Trump 45%

Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 42 - Johnson 4 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 58 - Trump 16 - Johnson 2 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - Trump 42 - Johnson 4 - Stein 2%


July 31

National

Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 46%
Internet:  Clinton 66 - Trump 23%
Outcome:  Clinton 50 - Trump 45%


Phone:  Trump 46 - Clinton 43 - Johnson 6 - Stein 1%
Internet:  Clinton 58 - Trump 22 - Johnson 6 - Stein 5%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 41 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


July 25

Ohio

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 45%
Internet:  Clinton 47 - Trump 35%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 45%

Phone:  Trump 45 - Clinton 40 - Johnson 4 - Stein 1%
Internet:  Clinton 37 - Trump 29 - Johnson 14 - Stein 7%
Outcome:  Trump 42 - Clinton 39 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


July 15

Missouri

Phone:  Trump 52 - Clinton 40%
Internet:  Trump 42 - Clinton 40%
Outcome:  Trump 50 - Clinton 40%


Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Trump 35 - Clinton 33 - Johnson 10 - Stein 1%
Outcome:  Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1%


June 30

National

Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 44%
Internet:  Clinton 65 - Trump 22%
Outcome:  Clinton 48 - Trump 44%


Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 41 - Johnson 5 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 59 - Trump 20 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - Trump 41 - Johnson 5 - Stein 2%


June 28

Arizona

Phone:  Trump 46 - Clinton 38%
Internet:  Clinton 48 - Trump 37%
Outcome:  Trump 44 - Clinton 40%

Iowa

Phone:  Trump 43 - Clinton 41%
Internet:  Clinton 42 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 41 - Trump 39%

Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 67 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%

Wisconsin
Phone:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%
Internet:  Clinton 50 - Trump 26%
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - Trump 39%

June 23

North Carolina

Internet:  Clinton 53 - Trump 33%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%

June 16

Virginia

Phone:  Trump 44 - Clinton 41%
Internet:  Clinton 48 - Trump 20%
Outcome:  Clinton 42 - Trump 39%

June 8
 
Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 30%
Outcome:  Clinton 44 - Trump 44%

June 7

Florida

Phone:  Trump 49 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 53 - Trump 29%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 44%
   

June 1

Georgia

Phone:  Trump 53 - Clinton 37%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 31%
Outcome:  Trump 49 - Clinton 40%



Thursday, June 16, 2016

2016 Battleground Swing State polls (vs 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000 election results)


 
 


Average of recent state polls  (vs last election):

FL:   Trump   +0.3     (R +1.2)

OH:  Clinto +1.3     (R +1.7)

VA:  Clinton   +11.3   (D +7.4) 

PA:   Clinton   +8       (D +2.6) 

MO:  Trump  +2        (D +7.4)

CO:   Clinton  +12     (D +6.6)

NC:   Clinton  +0.3    (D +2.3)

IA:    Clinton  +0.7     (R +5.1)

_______________________________


Florida

8/26 Mason-Dixon:
Clinton  +2  (44 - 42%)

8/24 Florida Chamber of Commerce:
Trump   +1  (44 - 43%)

8/24 Florida Atlantic U:
Trump   +2  (43 - 41%)

8/16 Monmouth:
Clinton  +9  (48 - 39%)

8/14 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +5  (45 - 40%)

8/12 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +5  (44 - 39%)

8/11 Opinion Savvy:
Clinton  +1  (45 - 44%)

8/9 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +1  (46 - 45%)

8/4 Suffolk:
Clinton  +6  (48 - 42%)

7/15 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +7  (44 - 37%)

7/13 Quinnipiac:
Trump   +3  (42 - 39%)

7/12 OnMessage Inc:
Trump   +2  (47 - 45%)

7/11 JMC Analytics:
Trump   +5  (47 - 42%)

7/2 Gravis:
Tie  (49 - 49%)

6/29 BayNews9/SurveyUSA:
Clinton  +4  (46 - 42%)

6/26 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +3  (44 - 41%)

6/21 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +8  (47 - 39%)

6/7 PPP:
Trump   +1  (45 - 44%)

6/3 Mason Dixon:
Clinton  +3  (45 - 42%)

Ohio

8/29 Emerson:
tie                (43 - 43%)

8/26 On Message:
tie                (45 - 45%)

8/22 Monmouth:
Clinton  +4  (43 - 39%)

8/21 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +6  (46 - 40%)

8/9 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +5  (43 - 38%)

8/9 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +4  (49 - 45%)

7/25 PPP:
tie    (45 - 45%)

7/21 Suffolk U:
tie    (44 - 44%)

7/17 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +4  (44 - 40%)

7/13 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
tie   (39 - 39%)

7/13 Quinnipiac:
tie   (41 - 41%)

7/2 Gravis:
Clinton  +1  (49 - 48%)

6/28 PPP:
Clinton  +4  (44 - 40%)

6/21 Quinnipiac:
Tie               (40 - 40%)

Virginia

8/23 Roanoke:
Clinton  +16 (48 - 32%)

8/17 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +10 (50 - 38%)

8/16 WaPo:
Clinton  +8   (51 - 43%)

8/12 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +13  (46 - 33%)

8/7 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +12 (49 - 37%)

7/31 RABA Research:
Trump   +4   (46 - 42%)

7/17 Hampton University:
Tie                (39 - 39%)

7/15 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +9  (44 - 35%)

7/13 FOX:
Clinton  +7  (44 - 37%)

6/16 PPP:
Clinton  +3  (48 - 45%)

Pennsylvania

8/29 Emerson:
Clinton  +3  (46 - 43%)

8/9 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +11  (48 - 37%)

8/9 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +10  (52 - 42%)

8/8 Susquehanna PR:
Clinton  +10  (47 - 37%)

8/4 Franklin Marshall:
Clinton  +11 (49 - 38%)

8/1 PPP:
Clinton  +4  (49 - 45%)

7/28 Suffolk:
Clinton  +9  (50 - 41%)

7/13 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +9  (45 - 36%)

7/13 Quinnipiac:
Trump   +2  (43 - 41%)

7/2 Gravis:
Clinton  +2  (50 - 48%)

6/28 PPP:
Clinton  +4  (46 - 42%)

6/21 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +1  (42 - 41%)

6/8 PPP:
Tie               (44 - 44%)

Missouri

8/23 Monmouth:
Trump   +1   (44 - 43%)

8/17 PPP:
Trump   +3   (45 - 42%)

8/9 Remington Research Group:
Trump   +2   (44 - 42%)

7/29 Mason Dixon:
Clinton  +1   (41 - 40%)

7/26 SurveyUSA:
Trump   +10  (47 - 37%)

7/15 PPP:
Trump   +10  (46 - 36%)

Colorado

8/17 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +10  (49 - 39%)

8/12 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +14  (46 - 32%)

7/15 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +8  (43 - 35%)

7/14 Gravis:
Clinton  +2   (43 - 42%)

7/13 FOX:
Clinton  +10  (44 - 34%)

7/13 Monmouth:
Clinton  +13  (48 - 35%)

7/11 Harper:
Clinton  +7  (45 - 38%)

6/26 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +1  (40 - 39%)

North Carolina

8/24 CNN/ORC:
tie                (45 - 45%)

8/24 Monmouth:
Clinton  +2  (44 - 42%)

8/21 Gravis:
Trump   +1  (39 - 38%) 

8/12 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +9  (48 - 39%)

8/9 PPP:
Clinton  +1  (47 - 46%)

8/3 Civitas/SurveyUSA:
Trump   +4  (46 - 42%)

7/15 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +6  (44 - 38%)

6/29 Civitas:
Clinton  +2  (42 - 40%)

6/26 CBS/YouGov:
Clinton  +2  (44 - 42%)

6/23 PPP:
Trump   +2  (48 - 46%)

Iowa

8/21 CBS/YouGov:
tie  (40 - 40%)

8/17 Quinnipiac:
Clinton  +3  (47 - 44%)

8/11 Suffolk:
Trump   +1  (41 - 40%)

8/9 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +4  (41 - 37%)

7/17 CBS/YouGov:
Trump   +1  (40 - 39%)

7/13 NBC/WSJ/Marist:
Clinton  +3  (42 - 39%)

7/13 Gravis:
Clinton  +2  (42 - 40%)

7/12 Monmouth:
Trump   +2  (44 - 42%)

6/30 Loras College:
Clinton  +14  (48 - 34%)

6/28 PPP:
Clinton  +2   (41 - 29%)



Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton; 2016 National Election Polls; Gender, Race & Party

*M - male, F - female, W - white, H - Hispanic, O - other, B - black, A - Asian, C - Cuban, D - Democrat, R - Republican, I - independent
*Only polls with available and relevant crosstabs are included. 



Average for 2nd half of August (compared to 1st half)

**:  Clinton   43 - 39    +4   (-2)                         

M:  Trump    45 - 38    +7    (-1)
F:   Clinton   49 - 34    +15   (-3)


W:  Trump    48 - 36    +12   (+1)
H:   Clinton   53 - 25    +28  (-1)
B:   Clinton   83 - 7       +76  (-5)


D:   Clinton   83 - 6      +77  (-5)
R:   Trump    79 - 6      +73  (--)
I:    Trump    36 - 32     +4   (+3)



August 29

Monmouth  (Clinton  46 - 39%)

M:  Trump   44 - 36% 
F:   Clinton  50 - 29% 

W:  Trump   44 - 36%

D:   Clinton  85 - 3%
R:   Trump   78 - 8%
I:    Clinton  32 - 37%


August 28

Morning Consult  (Clinton 39 - 37%):

M:  Trump   42 - 37% 
F:   Clinton  40 - 33% 

W:  Trump   43 - 32%
H:   Clinton  51 - 20%
B:   Clinton  76 - 5%
O:   Clinton  50 - 23%


D:   Clinton  80 - 6%
R:   Trump   78 - 7%
I:    Trump   30 - 27%

 

August 25

Quinnipiac  (Clinton 45 - 38%)

M:  Trump   42 - 35% 
F:   Clinton  54 - 33% 

W:  Trump   48 - 35%

D:   Clinton  88 - 4%
R:   Trump   81 - 10%
I:    Trump   34 - 33%


Reuters/IPSOS  (Clinton 39 - 36%)

D:   Clinton  74 - 8%
R:   Trump   75 - 5%
I:    Trump   34 - 20%


August 24

YouGov/Economist  (Clinton 47 - 44%)

M:  Trump   48 - 43% 
F:   Clinton  50 - 40% 

W:  Trump   53 - 38%
H:   Clinton  53 - 32%
B:   Clinton  88 - 8%
O:   Clinton  46 - 30%

D:   Clinton  86 - 7%
R:   Trump   90 - 3%
I:    Clinton  47 - 40%


August 22

ARG  (Clinton 47 - 42%)

M:  Trump   53 - 38% 
F:   Clinton  55 - 32% 

W:  Trump   47 - 40%
B:   Clinton  94 - 2%

D:   Clinton  90 - 4%
R:   Trump   81 - 8%
I:    Clinton  47 - 38%


August 18

Pew  (Clinton 41 - 37%):

M:  Trump   45 - 33% 
F:   Clinton  49 - 30% 

W:  Trump   45 - 33%
H:   Clinton  50 - 26%
B:   Clinton  85 - 2%


Reuters/IPSOS  (Clinton 41 - 36%):

D:   Clinton  82 - 6%
R:   Trump   72 - 5%
I:    Trump   37 - 20%


Rasmussen  (Clinton 41 - 39%):

M:  Clinton  40 - 39% 
F:   Clinton  43 - 39% 


D:   Clinton  77%
R:   Trump   69%
I:    Trump   38 - 29%


August 17

LA Times/USC  (Clinton 44 - 43%):

M:  Trump   50 - 38% 
F:   Clinton  50 - 37% 

W:  Trump   52 - 35%
H:   Clinton  58 - 26%
B:   Clinton  80 - 14%
O:   Trump   46 - 41%

 

YouGov/Economist  (Clinton 47 - 41%):

M:  Trump   46 - 42% 
F:   Clinton  52 - 37% 

W:  Trump   48 - 40%
H:   Clinton  54 - 26%
B:   Clinton  79 - 13%
O:   Clinton  59 - 32%

D:   Clinton  87 - 7%
R:   Trump   83 - 5%
I:    Clinton  45 - 40%


August 16

Zogby  (Clinton 38 - 36):

M:  Trump   41 - 35% 
F:   Clinton  42 - 32% 

H:   Clinton  51 - 18%
B:   Clinton  81 - 8%

I:    Trump   32 - 26%




Average for first half of August (compared to 2nd half July)

**:  Clinton   47 - 41    +6   (+5)                         

M:  Trump    47 - 39    +8    (-1)
F:   Clinton   53 - 35    +18  (+6)


W:  Trump    49 - 38    +11  (-3)
H:   Clinton   59 - 30    +29  (-4)
B:   Clinton   86 - 5      +81  (+4)


D:   Clinton   88 - 6      +82  (+4)
R:   Trump    81 - 8      +73  (-4)
I:    Trump    39 - 38     +1    (-3)



August 8

Monmouth  (Clinton  50 - 37%)

M:  Trump   42 - 36% 
F:   Clinton  55 - 27% 

W:  Trump   43 - 38%

D:   Clinton  92 - 3%
R:   Trump   79 - 10%
I:    Trump   32 - 30%


August 7

ABC/WaPo  (Clinton  50 - 42%) 

M:  Trump   51 - 41% 
F:   Clinton  58 - 35% 

W:  Trump   52 - 40%
H:   Clinton  69 - 26%
B:   Clinton  92 - 2%

D:   Clinton  92 - 5%
R:   Trump   83 - 11%
I:    Trump   46 - 42%


August 5

IBD/TIPP  (Clinton  46 - 39%)

M:  Trump   43 - 37% 
F:   Clinton  53 - 35% 

W:  Trump   44 - 39%

D:   Clinton  87 - 9%
R:   Trump   82 - 7%
I:    Clinton  38 - 36%


August 4

Reuters/IPSOS  (Clinton 42 - 39%)

M:  Trump   45 - 38% 
F:   Clinton  45 - 34% 

W:  Trump   44 - 39%


D:   Clinton  81 - 9%
R:   Trump   76 - 7%
I:    tie          27 - 27%


August 3

FOXN  (Clinton 49 - 39%) 

M:  Trump   45 - 40% 
F:   Clinton  57 - 34% 

W:  Trump   49 - 39%
B:   Clinton  87 - 4%

D:   Clinton  87 - 5%
R:   Trump   78 - 12%
I:    Trump   41 - 33%


August 1

LA Times/USC  (Trump 46 - 42%)

M:  Trump   51 - 37% 
F:   Clinton  47 - 42% 

W:  Trump   56 - 33%
H:   Clinton  54 - 33%
B:   Clinton  83 - 5%
O:   Trump   54 - 35%


CNN/ORC  (Clinton 51 - 42%)

M:  Trump   50 - 44% 
F:   Clinton  57 - 34% 

W:  Trump   53 - 39%

D:   Clinton  94 - 3%
R:   Trump   84 - 8%
I:    Clinton  48 - 41%


YouGov/Economist  (Clinton 46 - 43%)

M:  Trump   48 - 40% 
F:   Clinton  51 - 39% 

W:  Trump   51 - 37%
H:   Clinton  53 - 31%
B:   Clinton  82 - 10%
O:   Clinton  59 - 32%

D:   Clinton  86 - 6%
R:   Trump   88 - 4%
I:    Clinton  42 - 40%



Average for second half of July (compared to first half)

**:  Clinton  44 - 43%      +1     (-1)                           

M:  Trump    48 - 39%      +9    (+2)
F:   Clinton   49 - 37%      +12   (-2)

W:  Trump    50 - 36%     +14   (+2)
H:   Clinton   59 - 26%     +33   (+4)
B:   Clinton   83 - 6%       +77   (+8)


D:   Clinton   85 - 7%      +78    (+5)
R:   Trump    84 - 7%      +77    (+4)
I:    Trump    43 - 35% 
   +8      (+5)



July 31

PPP  (Clinton 50 - 45%):

M:  Trump   51 - 44% 
F:   Clinton  55 - 39% 

W:  Trump   56 - 40%
H:   Clinton  67 - 18%
B:   Clinton  91 - 2%
O:   Clinton  48 - 37%

D:   Clinton  87 - 9%
R:   Trump   86 - 10%
I:    Trump   46 - 42%


July 25

CNN/ORC  (Trump 48 - 45%):

M:  Trump   52 - 40% 
F:   Clinton  50 - 44% 

W:  Trump   57 - 36%

D:   Clinton  88 - 7%
R:   Trump   90 - 8%
I:    Trump   50 - 37%


CBS  (Trump 44 - 43%):

D:   Clinton  84 - 11%
R:   Trump   82 - 6%
I:    Trump   43 - 35%


July 21

ARG  (Clinton 43 - 42%):

M:  Trump   52 - 36% 
F:   Clinton  51 - 32% 

W:  Trump   47 - 37%
B:   Clinton  92 - 3%

D:   Clinton  85 - 3%
R:   Trump   77 - 7%
I:    Trump   51 - 33%


July 19

YouGov/Economist  (Clinton 45 - 41%):

M:  Trump   48 - 42% 
F:   Clinton  48 - 35% 

W:  Trump   48 - 37%
H:   Clinton  54 - 32%
B:   Clinton  77 - 10%
O:   Clinton  65 - 25%


D:   Clinton  81 - 8%
R:   Trump   89 - 4%
I:    Clinton  42 - 37%

 

July 18

Monmouth U  (Clinton 43 - 40%):

M:  Trump   45 - 37% 
F:   Clinton  48 - 35% 

W:  Trump   48 - 35%

D:   Clinton  88 - 5%
R:   Trump   81 - 8%
I:    Trump   40 - 31%


Morning Consult  (Clinton 41 - 39%):

M:  Trump   43 - 39% 
F:   Clinton  42 - 36% 

W:  Trump   45 - 35%
H:   Clinton  55 - 24%
B:   Clinton  75 - 7%
O:   Clinton  53 - 27%


D:   Clinton  80 - 8%
R:   Trump   79 - 7%
I:    Trump   38 - 27%


Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Harold  (Clinton 44 - 41%):

M:  Trump   46 - 38% 
F:   Clinton  49 - 37% 

W:  Trump   49 - 35%
H:   Clinton  61 - 30%
B:   Clinton  79 - 10%
O:   Trump   35 - 30%

D:   Clinton  83 - 7%
R:   Trump   84 - 5%
I:    Trump   40 - 35%



Average for first half July (compared to last half June)

**:  Clinton  43 - 41%      +2     (-3)                           

M:  Trump    45 - 38%      +7     (-2)
F:   Clinton   48 - 34%      +14   (-3)

W:  Trump    48 - 36%     +12   (+2)
H:   Clinton   55 - 26%     +29   (-7)
B:   Clinton    79 - 7%       +72   (-7)


D:   Clinton   81 - 8%      +73    (-5)
R:   Trump    80 - 7%      +73    (+1)
I:    Trump    34 - 31% 
    +3      (-)



July 15

LA Times/USC Dornsife (Trump 43 - 40%)

M:  Trump   47 - 36% 
F:   Clinton  41 - 34% 

H:   Clinton  51 - 30%
B:   Clinton  77 - 3%


July 14

CBS/NYT (tied 40 - 40%)

D:   Clinton  81 - 7%
R:   Trump   79 - 7%
I:    Trump   40 - 28%


July 13
  
McClacthy/Marist (Clinton 42 - 39%)

M:  Trump   47 - 33% 
F:   Clinton  51 - 33% 

W:  Trump   49 - 34%
H:   Clinton  52 - 26%
B:   Clinton  81 - 6%

   
YouGov/Economist  (Clinton 45 - 43%)

D:   Clinton  81 - 6%
R:   Trump   81 - 2%
I:    Trump   32 - 30%


July 7

Pew (Clinton 51 - 42%)

M:  Trump   49 - 43% 
F:   Clinton  59 - 35% 

W:  Trump   51 - 42%
H:   Clinton  66 - 24%
B:   Clinton  91 - 7%

D:   Clinton  91 - 5%
R:   Trump   85 - 8%


July 5

Morning Consult (Clinton 41 - 40%)

M:  Trump   44 - 39% 
F:   Clinton  43 - 36% 

W:  Trump   46 - 35%
H:   Clinton  60 - 23%
B:   Clinton  72 - 10%

O:   Clinton  51 - 24%

D:   Clinton  75 - 13%
R:   Trump   79 - 10%
I:    Trump   33 - 32%


YouGov/Economist (Clinton 42 - 37%)

M:  Trump   40 - 39% 
F:   Clinton  44 - 34% 

W:  Trump   45 - 34%
H:   Clinton  47 - 26%
B:   Clinton  75 - 8%
O:   Clinton  54 - 15%

D:   Clinton  77 - 11%
R:   Trump   77 - 6%
I:    Clinton  34 - 32%

 

Average for second half of June (compared to first half)

**:  Clinton  45 - 40%      +5     (-)                           

M:  Trump    47 - 38%      +9     (+1)
F:   Clinton   51 - 34%      +17   (+1)

W:  Trump    48 - 38%     +10   (-2)
H:   Clinton   59 - 23%     +36   (+5)
B:   Clinton   85 - 6%       +79   (+8)
O:   Clinton   44 - 34%     +10   (-)


D:   Clinton   85 - 7%      +78    (+3)
R:   Trump    80 - 8%      +72    (+3)
I:    Trump    39 - 36% 
   +  3     (-1)



June 30

IBD/TIPP (Clinton 44 - 40%)

M:  Trump   46 - 38%
F:   Clinton  49 - 34% 

W:  Trump   48 - 35%

D:   Clinton  85 - 7%
R:   Trump   85 - 6%
I:    Clinton  37 - 35%


PPP (Clinton 48 - 40%) 

M:  Trump   52 - 39% 
F:   Clinton  55 - 38% 

W:  Trump   55 - 37%
H:   Clinton  82 - 13%
B:   Clinton  91 - 5%

O:   Trump   56 - 38%

D:   Clinton  86 - 12%
R:   Trump   85 - 8%
I:    Clinton  45 - 39%

 
YouGov/Economist (Clinton 40 - 35%)

M:  Trump   41 - 35% 
F:   Clinton  43 - 29% 

W:  Trump   41 - 33%
H:   Clinton  44 - 22%
B:   Clinton  73 - 11%

O:   Clinton  42 - 31%

D:   Clinton  80 - 4%
R:   Trump   75 - 3%
I:    Trump   34 - 26%


June 29

FOXN  (Clinton 44 - 38%):

M:  Trump   46 - 36%
F:   Clinton  51 - 32% 

W:  Trump   48 - 34%
B:   Clinton  91 - 1%

D:   Clinton  83 - 6%
R:   Trump   74 - 10%
I:    Trump   39 - 31%


Quinnipiac  (Clinton 42 - 40%):

M:  Trump   47 - 34%  (W M:  Trump 56 - 25%) 
F:   Clinton  50 - 33%  (W F:   Clinton 42 - 39%)

W:  Trump   47 - 34%
H:   Clinton  50 - 33%
B:   Clinton  91 - 1%

D:   Clinton  89 - 3%
R:   Trump   84 - 6%
I:    Trump   36 - 34%
 

June 27

Morning Consult  (Clinton 44 - 39%):

D:  Clinton 80 - 10%
R:  Trump  79 - 11%
I:   Trump  35 - 32%

June 26

ABC/WaPo  (Clinton 51 - 39%)

M:  tie          45 - 45%
F:   Clinton  57 - 34%

W:  Trump   50 - 40%

D:   Clinton  90 - 6%
R:   Trump   77 - 10%
I:    Trump   45 - 43%


NBC/WSJ  (Clinton 46 - 41%)

M:  Trump   48 - 38%
F:   Clinton  52 - 35%

W:  Trump   49 - 37%
H:   Clinton  69 - 22%
B:   Clinton  87 - 5%

D:   Clinton  85 - 8%
R:   Trump   79 - 9%
I:    Trump   40 - 30%
 
June 21

Morning Consult  (Clinton 42 - 40%)

M:  Trump   44 - 42%
F:   Clinton  43 - 37%

W:  Trump   47 - 36%
H:   Clinton  48 - 27%
B:   Clinton  80 - 7%
O:   Clinton  55 - 24%

D:   Clinton  80 - 10%
R:   Trump   80 - 9%
I:    Trump   39 - 30%

Economist/YouGov  (Clinton 43 - Trump 39%):

M:  Trump   43 - 38%
F:   Clinton  48 - 36%

W:  Trump   48 - 34%
H:   Clinton  60 - 20%
B:   Clinton  84 - 9%
O:   Clinton  42 - 26%

D:   Clinton  86 - 6%
R:   Trump   80 - 4%
I:    Trump   41 - 32%


ARG  (Clinton 50 - 41%):

M:  Trump   53 - 39%
F:   Clinton  60 - 30%

W:  Trump   49 - 40%

D:   Clinton  89 - 5%
R:   Trump   79 - 9%
I:    Trump   45 - 45%

 
June 20

Monmouth University (Clinton 47 - 40%)

M: Trump  50 - 37%
F:  Clinton 57 - 30%

W: Trump  49 - 38%

D:  Clinton  87 - 6%
R:  Trump   84 - 8%
I:   Clinton  42 - 37%


Average for first half of June:

**:  Clinton 43 - 38%    +5

M:  Trump   45 - 37%   +8
F:   Clinton  47 - 31%   +16  

W:  Trump   46 - 34%   +12
H:   Clinton  55 - 24%   +31
B:   Clinton  79 - 8%     +71
A:   Clinton  48 - 29%   +17

D:  Clinton   82 - 7%     +75
R:  Trump    77 - 8%     +69
I:   Trump    37 - 33%   +4 

June 15

NYT/CBS (Clinton 43% - 37%)

M:  Trump  45 - 37%
F:   Clinton 48 - 29%

W:  Trump  43 - 37%
B:   Clinton 77 - 4%

D:   Clinton 81 - 6%
R:   Trump  73 - 6%
I:    Trump  37 - 35%

June 11

Morning Consult (Clinton 42% - 37%)

M:  Trump  43 - 41%
F:   Clinton 43 - 33%

D:  Clinton  78 - 8%
R:  Trump   74 - 13%
I:   Trump   33 - 32%

June 10

Guardian/SurveyUSA (Clinton 39 - 36%)

M:  Trump   42 - 37%
F:   Clinton  41 - 31%

W:  Trump  40 - 34%
H:   Clinton 45 - 29%
B:   Clinton 64 - 17%
A:   Clinton 48 - 29%

D:   Clinton 81 - 6%
R:   Trump  77 - 4%
I:    Trump  34 - Clinton 27%

June 9

FOXN (Clinton 42% - 39%)

M:  Trump  48 - 33%
F:   Clinton 50 - 32%

W: Trump  49 - 33%
B:  Clinton 81 - 5%

D:  Clinton 79 - 8%
R:  Trump  76 - 6%
I:   Trump  35 - 30%  (with Johnson: T 32 - J 23 - C 22%)

June 6

IBD/TIPP (Clinton  45 - 40%)

M:  Trump  49 - 38%
F:   Clinton 51 - 32%

D:  Clinton 84 - 8%
R:  Trump  74 - 12%
I:   Trump  41 - 35%

June 1

Quinnipiac (Clinton 45 - 41%)

W:  Trump  50 - 33%
H:   Clinton 65 - 18%
B:   Clinton 93 - 4%

D:  Clinton 90 - 4%
R:  Trump  86 - 6%
I:   Trump  40 - 37%