Monday, April 30, 2012

2012 Battleground State non-POTUS elections, polls, predictions

2012 Battleground State elections that might influence the race for POTUS:
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Colorado [9] --- House: 4 (R), 3 (D)
Florida [29] --- Senate: Nelson (D) vs Mack (R)
Missouri [10] --- Senate: McCaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
North Carolina [15] --- Governor: McCrory (R) vs Dalton (D)
Ohio [18] --- Senate: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)
Pennsylvania [20] --- Senate: Casey (D) vs Smith (R)
Virginia [13] --- Senate: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

11/2/12
CO     --- R +2
FL      --- D +5 (+1)
MO    --- D +3
NC     --- R +13
OH     --- D +3 (-1)
PA     --- D +5
VA     --- R +1 (+1)
Advantage EVEN (O -0.14)


10/30/12
CO     --- R +2
FL      --- D +4 (-1)
MO    --- D +3 (-1)
NC     --- R +13 (+1)
OH    --- D +4
PA     --- D +5
VA     --- even (D -1)
Advantage Obama @ 0.14 (-0.57)

10/26/12
CO    --- R +2
FL     --- D +5 (-2)
MO    --- D +4 (+1)
NC     --- R +12 (-1) 
OH    --- D +4 (-1)
PA     --- D +5 (-1)
VA     --- D +1
Advantage Obama @ 0.71 (-0.29)

10/19/2012
CO    --- R +2
FL     --- D +7 (-1)
MO   --- D +3 (-1)
NC    --- R +13
OH   --- D +5
PA    --- D +6 (-2)
VA    --- D +1
Advantage Obama @ 1.00 (-0.57)

10/12/2012
CO   --- R +2
FL    --- D +8  (+1)
MO  --- D +4  (+1)
NC   --- R +13 (+1)
OH  --- D +5
PA   --- D +8  (-2)
VA   --- D +1  (-1)
Advantage Obama @ 1.57 (-0.29)

10/5/2012
CO   --- R +2
FL    --- D +7
MO  --- D +3 (-1)
NC   --- R +12 (+1)
OH   --- D +5
PA    --- D +10
VA   --- D +2 (+1)
Advantage Obama @ 1.86 (-0.14)

9/28/2012
CO   --- R +2 (+1)
FL    --- D +7
MO  --- D +4 (+1)
NC   --- R +11 (+1)
OH   --- D +5
PA   --- D +10 (-2)
VA  --- D +1
Advantage Obama @ 2.0 (-0.43)

9/21/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +7 (+1)
MO  --- D +3
NC   --- R +10
OH   --- D +5 (+1)
PA    --- D +12 (-1)
VA   --- D +1 (+2)
Advantage Obama @ 2.43 (+0.43)

9/14/2012
CO   ---  R +1
FL    ---  D +6 (+1)
MO  ---  D +3 (+2)
NC   ---  R +10 (+2)
OH   ---  D +4 (+1)
PA    ---  D +13
VA   ---  R +1 (+1)
Advantage Obama @ 2.0 (+0.14)

9/7/2012
CO    ---  R +1
FL     ---  D +5
MO   ---  D +1 (+1)
NC    ---  R +8 (+1)
OH    ---  D +3 (-1)
PA     ---  D +13 (+1)
VA    ---  even
Advantage Obama @ 1.86

8/31/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D + 5 (+1)
MO  --- even (R -4)
NC   --- R +7
OH   --- D +4 (-1)
PA    --- D +12
VA   --- even
Advantage Obama @ 1.86 (+0.57)

8/24/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +4 (+1)
MO  --- R +4 (-2)
NC   --- R +7
OH   --- D +5 (-1)
PA    --- D +12
VA   --- even (D -1)
Advantage Obama +1.29 (+0.15)

8/17/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +3 (+1)
MO  --- R +6 (+1)
NC   --- R +7 (-1)
OH   --- D +6 (-1)
PA    --- D +12 (+1)
VA   --- D +1 (+1)
Advantage Obama +1.14 (+0.28)

8/10/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +2
MO  --- R +5 (-1)
NC   --- R +8
OH   --- D +7 (+1)
PA    --- D +11
VA   --- even
Advantage Obama +0.86 (+0.29)

8/3/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +2
MO  --- R +6 (-1)
NC   --- R +8 (-1)
OH   --- D +6 (+1)
PA    --- D +11
VA   --- even
Advantage Obama +0.57 (+0.43) 

7/27/2012
CO  --- R +1
FL   --- D +2
MO --- R +7 (+1)
NC  --- R +9
OH  --- D +5
PA   --- D +11 (-1)
VA   --- even
Advantage Obama +0.14 (-0.29)

7/20/2012
CO  --- R +1
FL   --- D +2 (-2)
MO --- R +6
NC  --- R +9
OH  --- D +5 (-1)
PA   --- D +12
VA   --- even (R -1)
Advantage Obama  +0.43 (-0.28)

7/13/2012
CO  --- R +1
FL   --- D +4
MO --- R +6
NC  --- R +9 (+1)
OH  --- D +6
PA  --- D +12 (+1)
VA  --- R +1
Advantage Obama +0.71

7/6/2012
CO  --- R +1
FL   --- D +4 (-1)
MO --- R +6
NC  --- R +8
OH  --- D +6
PA   --- D +11
VA  --- R +1 (+1)
Advantage Obama +0.71 (-0.29)

6/29/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +5
MO  --- R +6 (+1)
NC   --- R +8 (+1)
OH   --- D +6 (+1)
PA   --- D +11
VA   --- even (D -1)
Advantage Obama +1.0 (-0.29)

6/22/2012
CO   --- R +1
FL    --- D +5 (-1)
MO  --- R +5 (+1)
NC   --- R +7 (+1)
OH   --- D +5 (-1)
PA   --- D +11
VA   --- D +1
Advantage Obama +1.29 (-0.57)

6/15/2012
CO    --- R +1
FL     --- D +6
MO   --- R +4 (+1)
NC    --- R +6 (+1)
OH    --- D +6
PA    --- D +11 (+1)
VA    --- D +1
Advantage Obama +1.86 (-0.14)
6/1/2012:
CO   ---  R +1
FL    ---  D +6
MO  ---  R +3 (-1)
NC   ---  R +5 (-1)
OH   ---  D +6 (-1)
PA   ---  D +10 (+1)
VA   ---  D +1
Adavntage Obama +2 (+0.29)

5/25/2012:
CO   ---  R +1
FL    ---  D +6 (-3)
MO  ---  R +4 (+1)
NC   ---  R +6
OH   ---  D +7 (+1)
PA   ---   D +9 (-1)
VA   ---   D +1 (+1)
Advantage Obama +1.71 (-0.43) [80-34]

5/18/2012:
CO   --- R +1 (+1)
FL    --- D +9
MO  --- R +3 (-1)
NC   --- R +6
OH   ---  D +6 (+1)
PA   ---  D +10
VA   ---  even
Advantage Obama +2.14 (+0.14) [67-34]

5/11/2012:
CO  --- even (R -1)
FL   --- D +9
MO --- R +4 (+2)
NC  --- R +6 (+1)
OH  --- D +5
PA  ---  D +10
VA  ---  even (R -1)
Advantage Obama +2.00 (-0.14) [67-25]

5/4/2012:
CO  --- R  +1
FL   --- D  +9
MO --- R  +2
NC  --- R  +5
OH  --- D  +5
PA  --- D  +10
VA ---  R  +1
Advantage Obama +2.14 [67-47]



(secret sauce polling)