Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Media and Clinton beyond confident of victory.
Afternoon exit polls portray Clinton landslide.
Reports of Trump needing a miracle to stay competitive as polls close.
Between 8 and 9pm early vote counts in FL, OH, and NC show a Clinton victory eminent, but then...
After 9pm Trump gains and takes the lead in FL, OH, NC, WI, MI...
Media apoplectic shock...
As PA count closes with Trump ahead, at 3am Clinton calls Trump to concede.
President-elect Donald J. Trump...
FOXN: Clinton 48-44
ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47-43
CBS/NYT: Clinton 45-41
Seltzer: Clinton 44-41
Rasmussen: Clinton 45-43
IBD/TIPP: Trump 43-41
LATimes/USC: Trump 48-43
Trump campaign stops: FL, NC, PA, NH, MI
Hillary campaign stops: PA, MI, PA (concert), NC (concert)
Trump campaign stops: IA, MN, MI, PA, VA.
Hillary campaign stops: OH, NH
FBI Director Comey letter states Clinton email investigation reduced to same status as July, non-active.
Pundits and pollster perplexed by Hillary & Bill Clinton, Obama, Trump, and Pence scheduled events in Michigan (traditionally solid Democrat) this close to election day.
Media has successfully beat back the narrative that Hillary is under two FBI investigations.
Poll aggregator Five Thirty Eight gives Trump a 35% of winning (it was at 10% just last week).
FBI sources: Clinton Foundation has been under investigation for over a year despite Justice Department efforts to quash it. Regarding Clinton email case, the five immunities granted are limited and devices previously reported destroyed as part of the immunity deals are currently being searched...
Political pundit conventional wisdom:
Although Trump surging, an electoral victory path improbable to impossible - despite Trump supporter enthusiasm and Hillary supporter anxiety.
ABC/WaPo tracking poll that showed Clinton +12 eight days ago now shows Trump +1.
Clinton campaign has successfully altered the media's FBI investigatory narrative to focus on director Comey; their constant push to tie Trump to Russia has been less successful...
News reports of a second FBI investigation, the Clinton Foundation.
The 650,000 State Department emails associated with Clinton on Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner's laptop had been in FBI possession for weeks.
Internal bureau feuds and threats of agent mutiny resulted in the final divulgence. FBI battle with Justice Department over both investigations carries legal and political overtones...
FBI Hillary email investigation: Democrats & media blame & question FBI Director Comey's procedural conduct while Trump-supporting Republicans blame Hillary...
Daily tracking polls:
IBD/TIPP: Clinton +2
ABC/WaPo: Clinton +1
LA Times: Trump +2
Reports that "tens of thousands" of State Department emails were found on five devices not admitted to by Huma Abedin in previous testimony.
Clinton campaign "declares war" on FBI Director Comey. Media cooperates by focusing on the detail that Comey did not follow Department of Justice procedure in notifying Congress about the matter.
*FBI reopens investigation of Hillary Clinton based on newly discovered Huma Abedin emails found while investigating Anthony Weiner for sexting a minor...
Media vaunted ABC/WaPo poll showing Clinton +12 just 4 days ago now shows Clinton +4.
Two most accurate polls from 2012:
IBD: Clinton +3
LA Times: Trump +2
Front page articles of NYT, WaPo, WSJ report $66 million in shakedown payments to the Clintons; source: WikiLeaks release of "Doug Band memo."
"Shock polls" show Trump up in OH and FL, tied in NV, within statistical margin of error in PA and NH, and a FOXN national poll down only 3.
Obamacare premiums set to soar +25% in 2017;
media narrative: if not for Trump this news would hurt Democrats.
Recent batch of WikiLeaks' Podesta Emails further reveals that President Obama knew about Clinton's illegal server earlier than admitted to...
With the exception of two pollsters (of note the most accurate in 2012) polls show a Hillary victory inevitable.
Clinton has one event, a rally of 1,000 in New Hampshire.
Trump has six events in Florida including two rallies combining for 24,000+.
Media celebrates ABC/WaPo poll showing Hillary up 12.
WikiLeaks continues to release 1,000+ Podesta emails a day detailing Clinton corruption... media ignores.
Trump gives a "Gettysburg Address" policy speech on what he would do in first 100 days.
Media focuses on Trump's 11th sexual harassment accuser, a porn star...
Trump focuses on "rigged system", "drain the swamp" campaign themes, Clinton focuses on Trump's unfitness for office.
Post-debate media narrative: shock at Trump refusing committal to abide by election results.
Nielson Ratings show last debate third most watched ever at 71.6 million (#1 - first Trump vs Clinton, #2 - Reagan vs Carter).
FOXN poll shows Clinton up 45 - 39%.
IBD/TIPP, most accurate poll from 2012 and over past 3 elections, shows Trump in lead at 41 - 40%.
Third and final debate in Las Vegas.
Heavily redacted FBI docs reveal "quid pro quo" between State Department and FBI regarding Hillary emails.
WikiLeaks continue despite US Pressure on Ecuador to cut off Assange's internet access.
Undercover video released by Project Veritas shows DNC conspiring in voter fraud and violent disruption of Trump rallies; scant coverage on national media outlets.
Hillary still off campaign trail.
National CBS/NYT, Clinton +9
Florida Quinnipiac, Clinton +4
Ohio CNN, Trump +4
A cyber attack is launched against Julian Assange of WikiLeaks in retaliation for releasing damaging Clinton emails.
Washington Post, one of her strongest allies, has declared Hillary the winner 22 days out from election day.
Hillary again has zero public events scheduled.
Media consensus that Hillary will win in landslide.
NBC/WSJ: Clinton +11
ABC/WaPo: Clinton +4
LA Times: Trump +1
Rasmussen: Trump +2
(LA Times and Rasmussen are snarkily mocked as outliers...)
Hillary remains out of public eye for fourth consecutive day as media proudly continues onslaught of negative Trump coverage.
WikiLeaks continue, media (and pollster) blackout on the subject except to declare as fact that Russia is to blame.
Media focuses on women accusing Trump of groping despite Google searches for WikiLeaks quadrupling searches for Trump harassment.
Trump raises $100 million in September, breaks GOP record for individual donors.
Hillary again off the campaign trail.
Media is all Trump all day, now aghast at Trump stressing that "the system is rigged."
Press apoplectic about Trump anti-media rhetoric and appalled by rally goer chants of "tell the truth" directed at journalists.
Second consecutive day of Hillary without a public appearance, instead Michelle Obama, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton campaign for her.
Just as the latest batch of WikiLeaks Podesta emails start to gain media attention (CNN feeding debate questions to Hillary & anti-Catholic rhetoric) the New York Times (who has sworn to destroy Trump in front page editorials and has three exposed journalists coordinating with Clinton campaign) unveils story of two women accusing Trump of groping them decades ago.
News media outlets pronounce the race over, Clinton landslide predicted. GOP vows to eradicate "Trumpism".
With GOP establishment support shifting toward Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump declares his independence, "...the shackles have been taken off..."
Third batch of WikiLeaks documents regarding John Podesta released, media mostly ignores to focus on Trump tweets.
Majority of political pundits either declare Trump the winner of last night's debate or at least admit he salvaged his damaged candidacy.
A second round of WikiLeaks documents released...
Media given orders to destroy Trump at all costs...
First poll taken entirely after Trump lewd sex talk audio shows an imperceptible fallout.
Morning Consult: Clinton 42 - Trump 38
2nd presidential debate (town hall format) at Washington University in St. Louis, MO.
To the debate Trump invites 3 women allegedly assaulted by Bill Clinton and the victim of a child rapist defended by Hillary.
GOP establishment in turmoil as they demand Trump step down, GOP base appears to stand by Trump.
Within an hour of each other, news media releases video of Trump bragging about touching a married woman's vagina, then WikiLeaks releases documents regarding Clinton's lucrative Wall Street speeches - the first batch of hacked Podesta emails.
Earlier in the day an hour apart, State Department released first judge-ordered batch of deleted Clinton Emails and US government accused Russian government of election interference.
FOXN poll: Clinton 44 - Trump 42%
With virtually no national media attention, hacked emails from Clinton staff, DNC, and State Department continue to trickle out...
Conventional wisdom declares Pence the debate winner, Trump campaign hopes to use as a momentum reset...
Campaigning for Hillary Clinton today: President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, ex-President Bill Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden.
VP debate between Senator Kaine and Governor Pence at Longwood University in Farmville, VA.
National polls released today:
Morning Consult: Clinton 42 - 36%
Red Oak: Clinton 36 - 31%
CNN: Clinton 47 - 42%
CBS/NYT: Clinton 45 - 41%
Rasmussen: Clinton 43 - 40%
YouGov: Clinton 43 - 40%
UPI/CVoter: Trump 49 - 47%
LA Times: Trump 47 - 42%
Media narrative: acknowledging mission to destroy Trump verging on completion.
NYT prints Trump's 1995 tax returns in which Trump declared a $916 million loss and paid no income tax.
Post debate poll shifts:
Morning Consult: C +5
UPI/CVoter: C +1
Rasmussen: C +6
LA Times: T +2
FOXN: C +2
PPP: T +1
USA Today editorial argues that Trump is unfit and must be stopped.
United Nations news agency calls on Americans living abroad to "End Trump."
National media hammers Trump for insulting "beauty queen" Alicia Machado (despite her past), losing the debate and claiming he won.
Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado, mentioned by Clinton during debate to show Trump's ill-treatment of women, less than 12 hours afterward is featured in multiple articles and TV appearance regarding Trump's "fat-shaming."
By midnight alternative media reveals (and national media ignores) that Machado was an accomplice to murder, threatened life of judge, associated with Los Negros cartel, and participated in pornography.
First Clinton v Trump debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY.
Consensus press opinion declares Clinton the winner.
Record TV ratings approach 84 million.
Poll shifts toward Trump leading up to first debate:
Morning Consult +3
Saint Leo +9
FL Chamber -3
JMC Analytics +13
Morning Call +6
News sources report Clinton campaign abandoning Ohio as lost.
Morning follows riots in downtown Charlotte, NC sparked by police shooting.
Clinton has aired 35,714 TV commercials in 11 states.
Trump has aired 7,457 TV commercials in 5 states.
In August, Clinton spent $50 million; $645,000 more a day than Trump.
For August, 68% of Clinton spending went to ads.
Separate from the Clinton campaign, pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA spent $20.6 million in August and the DNC spent $28 million on her behalf.
Trump has raised $100 million from donations under $200 since June 21.
August campaign staffs:
Clinton 789 paid $3.3 million
Trump 140 paid $643 thousand
This summer, Clinton has outspent Trump on TV by $109 million in seven swing states.
In Florida Clinton is outspending Trump $52 million to $1 million.
CBS/YouGov poll of 13 battleground states: 42 - 42%
Explosive devices detonate in New Jersey and Manhattan.
Trump schedules media event at his new DC hotel to discuss "birther" issue. In doing so invited war heroes tout support for Trump as media outlets seethe at being manipulated.
Clinton returns to campaign trail after recovering from "pneumonia" illness.
Media (or Trump) resurrects Obama's "birther" conspiracy.
Economist: Clinton 42 - 40%
Quinnipiac: Clinton 41 - 39%
Reuters: even 39 - 39%
UPI: Trump 49 - 46%
LA Times: Trump 47 - 42%
CNN: Trump 46 - 41%
Bloomberg: Trump 44 - 39%
CNN: Trump 47 - 44%
Monmouth: Trump 44 - 42%
With Hillary Clinton incapacitated with an illness, President Obama campaigns for her in Philadelphia.
Hacked DNC emails released by Guccifer 2.0: donor "pay for play list" for ambassadors, Colin Powell critical of Hillary corruption and Trump racism,...
Clinton faints being escorted from a 9/11 ceremony, her campaign blames the episode on pneumonia.
During a fundraiser Clinton calls half of Trump voters a "basket of deplorables."
Trump campaign reports raising $90 million in August, has $97 million in cash on hand.
Both candidates separately take question during NBC's Commander In Chief Forum.
"Shock poll" CNN:
Trump 45 - Clinton 43 - Johnson 7 - Stein 2%
In starting Labor Day event Clinton endures two minute coughing fit.
Trump attends service at Great Faith Ministries, an all black church in Detroit.
FBI releases notes of July 2 Clinton three hour interview.
-Clinton staff deleted emails after being subpoenaed
-Clinton could not answer 41 questions for lack memory
-Clinton used 18 mobile devices; none recovered, two destroyed with hammer
Clinton raised $143 million in August.
FOX News poll:
Clinton 41 - Trump 39 - Johnson 9 - Stein 4
Trump travels to meet with Mexican President Nieto.
Trump gives "major" immigration speech in Phoenix.
Clinton has not held a press conference in 269 days.
In that timespan Trump has held 16.
Emerson: Trump down only 3% in PA and 5% in MI;
Republican nominee has not won PA or MI since 1988.
National media narrative: Trump "flip-flopped" on immigration stance.
Candidate Clinton receives her first national security briefing.
Clinton gives "Alt-Right" conspiracy speech in Reno, Nevada. Afterward, Clinton thanks the "cooperative" press corps.
Nigel Farage, leader and architect of Brexit, campaigns with Trump at rally.
Media begins to question if the Clinton Foundation should be shut down before election.
FBI reveals 14,900 Clinton emails previously considered deleted, federal judge orders State Department to review and release prior to election. (Scant media attention...)
Latest media "shock polls" (not fitting narrative),
Daily tracking polls:
LA Times Trump +2 (45 - 43%)
PPD Trump +1 (43 - 42%)
UPI tie (48 - 48%)
Morning Consult poll:
2 way race, Clinton +6 (44 - 38%)
4 way race, Clinton +3 (39 - 36%)
Moring Consult press release headline calls race for Clinton:
"Trump Campaign Shakeup Is Likely Too Little, Too Late."
Trump making a campaign effort to win over black voters.
Paid campaign staff:
Trump's first TV ad buy; FL, OH, PA, NC.
Trump, now using a teleprompter at his rallies, expresses regret for past statements that have caused "personal pain" to others.
Today's national polling of four way race:
Rasmussen - Clinton +2
Reuters - Clinton +4
PPD - Clinton +1
Pew - Clinton +4
Trump receives his first classified intelligence briefings.
Confident of victory, with 84 days until election day, Clinton names presidential transition team while a Clinton super-PAC pulls advertising from PA, VA, and CO.
In policy speech, Trump calls for an "extreme vetting" ideological test for pending immigrants and refugees.
Wall Street Journal editorial board demands that Trump exit the race.
Pundits criticize Trump for campaigning in Fairfield, Connecticut accusing him of knowing the race is lost and just having fun; Secret Service estimates rally crowd at 4,800.
Stock Markets hit record highs.
Media aggressively pushes back against questions of Clinton's health problems calling them irresponsible conspiracy theories.
Media furious that Trump has questioned the legitimacy of election process and warn public of his dangerous rhetoric.
Released emails reveal relationship between Secretary of State Clinton and Clinton Foundation donors.
National media focus: Trump says Clinton/Obama are the founders of ISIS.
Clinton 44 - Trump 40 - Johnson 9 - Stein 4%
Clinton 40 - Trump 35 - Johnson 8 - Stein 2%
Clinton 44.9 - Trump 43.5%
Clinton 48.5 - Trump 45%
National political media focuses on Trump sentence at rally musing that Second Amendment people might be able to stop Clinton.
Father of the Jihadist who recently murdered 49 homosexuals in Orlando sits behind Clinton at rally in Kissimmee, FL.
New York Times chief political columnist writes in support of journalist mission to destroy Trump.
Clinton +8 (50 - 42%)
Clinton +1 (45 - 44%)
Television advertising costs thus far:
Clinton: $52 million
Average of daily tracking polls (LATimes, UPI, PPD, Reuters, & Rasmussen):
Clinton + 3%
Average of latest NBC/WSJ, CNN, FOXN, & CBS/NYT polls:
Clinton + 9%
Unanimous national media narrative: Trump campaign has collapsed, rumors he will drop out of the race.
Daily tracking polls:
PPDNews: tie 44 - 44%
UPI/CVoter: Clinton 48 - 46%
LATimes/USC: Trump 45 - 44%
Two Trump rallies in Florida tally 8,000 and 12,000 attendees.
Clinton raises $90 million in July, has $58 million cash on hand.
Trump raises $82 million in July, has $74 million cash on hand.
Clinton +7 (46 - 39%)
Trump +4 (46 - 42%)
Clinton +9 (51 - 42%)
Clinton +3 (46 - 43%)
Clinton +3 (49 - 46%)
Clinton +5 (40 - 35%)
CBS/YouGov poll of 11 battleground states:
Clinton (43 - 41%)
Outraged media outlets unanimously condemn Trump for criticizing a father of a soldier killed during Iraq war in 2004 who criticized the GOP nominee at the DNC convention.
Wall Street hedge fund donations to Clinton: $48,500,000
Wall Street hedge fund donations to Trump: $19,000
Clinton campaign money spent on polls: $1.7 million
Trump campaign money spent on polls: $0
Hillary Clinton speech at DNC convention.
Trump holds press conference.
Clinton has gone 236 days without a press conference.
President Obama speech at DNC convention.
Former President Clinton speech at DNC convention.
Democrat Convention begins in Philadelphia.
CBS national poll:
Trump (44 - 43%)
CNN/ORC national poll:
Trump (48 - 45%)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigns as DNC chairwoman.
WikiLeaks releases hacked DNC emails.
Clinton selects former Virginia Senator and Governor Tim Kaine as VP running mate.
Trump's "dark" convention speech.
Senator Ted Cruz convention speech vociferously criticized for disloyalty to the GOP.
First day of Republican convention in Cleveland.
CBS/YouGov poll of 11 battleground states:
Clinton (41 - 40%)
Monmouth University poll of 10 battleground states:
Clinton (46 - 39%)
Since June 1, Clinton has spent $195.7 million on her campaign.
Trump names Indiana Governor Mike Pence his VP running mate.
Tied 40 - 40%
Clinton 45 - 43%
Clinton 42 - 40%
Clinton 42 - 39%
Trump 44 - 42%
Trump 43 - 41%
Clinton 45 - 36%
tied 41 - 41%
tied 39 - 39%
Trump 42 - 39%
Clinton 48 - 35%
Clinton 44 - 34%
Clinton 45 - 41%
Clinton 44 - 37%
NBC News national poll:
Clinton 47 - 44%
ABC News poll:
56% of voters think FBI should have indicted Clinton.
Media reacts to last night's assassination of five Dallas cops at Black Lives Matter protest.
House Oversight Committee questions FBI Director Comey about his handling of the Clinton email probe.
Trump raises $51 million, $26 million for his campaign,
Clinton raises $68 million, $40 million for her campaign.
FBI rebukes, but does not criminally charge Clinton with mishandling classified State Department emails.
FBI prosecutors interview Clinton for three and a half hours regarding her conduct as Secretary of State.
*She was not under oath.
Clinton campaign has $44 million cash on hand.
Clinton is spending $500,000 a day on television ads,
In political advertising, Clinton outspent Trump 46 to 1; $42.7 million to $900,000.
Clinton 40 - 35%
Trump 43 - 38%
Clinton 44 - Trump 40%
Clinton 37 - Trump 36 - Johnson 9 - Stein 5%
Clinton 48 - Trump 44%
Clinton 45 - Trump 41 - Johnson 5 - Stein 2%
Clinton 44 - 38%
Democrats supporting Clinton: 83%
Republicans supporting Trump: 74%
Independents: Trump 39 - Clinton 31%
Clinton 42 - 40%
white men: Trump +31%
white women: Clinton +3%
Hispanics: Clinton +17%
Clinton ad spending in battleground states for June: $25.8 million
Trump ad spending in battleground states for June: $0
Morning Consult national:
Clinton 44 - Trump 39%
Clinton 39 - Trump 36 - Johnson 13%
Clinton 51 - Trump 39%
Clinton 47 - Trump 37 - Johnson 7 - Stein 3%
Clinton 46 - Trump 41%
Clinton 39 - Trump 38 - Johnson 10 - Stein 6%
Shocking world leaders and the establishment media, Britain votes to exit the European Union. The nationalist Brexit victory strikes a severe blow against globalism and mass Muslim migration into Europe.
Trump raises $11 million on two days of fundraising.
Clinton's former IT specialist at the State Department Bryan Pagliano invokes his Fifth Amendment right to remain silent 126 times during a 90 minute federal FOIA lawsuit deposition. Video will be released next week.
FEC campaign filing, cash on hand / campaign war chest:
Trump: $ 1.3 million
Clinton: $42.0 million
CNN/ORC national poll:
Clinton 47 - Trump 42% (last CNN poll: Clinton 54 - 41%)
Clinton 42 - Trump 38 - Johnson 9 - Stein 7%
Clinton 40 - Trump 40%
Clinton 42 - Trump 41%
Clinton 47 - Trump 39%
Trump fires campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.
NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll (internet):
Clinton 48 - Trump 42%
Clinton 42 - Trump 38 - Johnson 9 - Stein 5%
Gravis Marketing national poll:
Clinton 50 - Trump 45 - other 5%
Clinton 51 - Trump 49%
CNBC/All-American Survey, national poll, (6/11-14):
Clinton 40 - Trump 35 - undecided 25%
Media narrative: Trump campaign collapsing, Clinton will win in a landslide.
Reuters/Ipsos national poll:
Clinton 41 - 32%
CBS/NYT national poll:
Clinton 43 - 37%
Marquette Law School poll, Wisconsin:
RV: Clinton 42 - 35%
LV: Clinton 46 - 37%
2012 election: Obama 54 - 45%
2008 election: Obama 56 - 42%
Republican Governor Walker has refused to endorse Trump.
President Obama speech pushes gun control and belittles use of term "Radical Islam" as a "strategy."
Bloomberg/Selzer national poll:
Clinton 49 - 37%
In wake of Orlando terrorist shooting Democrats push for stricter gun control laws.
Islamic jihadist kills 49 at Orlando, FL gay nightclub.
Clinton 42 - Trump 39%
Clinton 39 - Trump 36 - Johnson 12%
PPP Pennsylvania poll:
Tied at 44%
Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan calls Trump a racist for his comments about a "Mexican" federal judge.
AP and CNN report that Clinton has clinched the Democrat nomination based on a survey of super delegates.
Clinton 45 - Trump 40%
Clinton 39 - Trump 35 - Johnson 11%
Florida, Mason Dixon poll:
Clinton 45 - Trump 42 - Johnson 6%
A mob of 300 Mexican nationalists harass, pelt, shove, and sucker punch Trump supporters leaving a rally in San Jose.
State Department Inspector General reports that Hillary violated federal rules by using her own private server for government email.
With a pledge from unbound delegates Trump reaches the 1,237 threshold to become official Republican nominee for president.
Clinton 49 - 39%
(In 2012 election Obama beat Romney by 23%)
Clinton 46 - 43%
Trump 46 - 44%
Clinton 47 - 41%
Clinton 41 - 36%
Trump 45 - 42%
FL: Clinton 43 - 42
OH: Trump 43 - 39
PA: Clinton 43 - 42
(Q Poll at this point in 2012:
FL: Romney 44 - 43
OH: Obama 45 - 44
PA: Obama 47 - 39)
Republican Speaker of the House Ryan says he is not ready to support or endorse Trump's candidacy.
Trump responds to Speaker Ryan by saying he is not ready to support or endorse Ryan's agenda.
Trump wins Indiana Republican primary to be declared the "presumptive" nominee by party chairman Reince Priebus.
Hillary Clinton loses Indian Democratic primary to Sanders.
The #NeverTrump movement of the establishment GOP is pushing for a contested convention to stop a Trump nomination...
Posted by skoorbekim at 07:40