Simon Jackmon/HuffPo: Obama 277+
Karl Rove: Romney 279 - 259 , pop. vote 51 - 48 Romney
Nate Silver: Obama 314 - 223 , pop. vote 50.9 - 48.2 Obama
Perception As Reality: Romney 271 - 267 , pop. vote 50 - 49
Larry Sabato: Obama 290 - 248
Scott Rasmussen: pop. vote Romney 49.35% - 47.88%
Gallup Model:
US [D 37 , R 39 , I 24 = R +2] , [W52 - M48]
[W52 - M48] Pop. Vote --- Romney 51.15% - 48.85%
[W53 - M47] Pop. Vote --- Romney 51.11% - 48.89%
Final Tracking Poll 11/5 --- Romney 49% - 48%
Rasmussen Model:
September --- US [D 34.2 , R 36.8 , I 29 = R +2.6]
Pop. Vote --- Romney 52.58% - 47.42%
| October --- US [D 33.3 , R 39.1 , I 27.5 = R +5.8] Final Tracking Poll 11/5 --- Romney 49% - 48% 2008 Model: US [D 39 , R 32 , I 29 = D +7] , [W 53 - M 47] Pop. Vote --- Obama 51.03% - 48.97% |
US [D 37 , R 39 , I 24 = R +2] , [W 54 - M 46]
Pop. Vote --- Romney 51.07% - 48.93%
*No candidate that has won the Independents AND the Gender Gap has lost the election.
