Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Was there an Obama Birther Bounce?

Claiming that the Birther issue was dominating the news, President Obama released his long form birth certificate on April 25, 2011 in an effort to quell the controversy...
Political pollsters and pundits searched for an immediate Presidential approval bounce:

Real Clear Politics' President Poll Average Data:
4/25/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 45.6 / 48.9% for a spread of -3.3
5/03/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 47.2 / 47.2% for a spread of 0.0
Data suggests a birther bounce of +1.6 / -1.7% for an Obama Birther Bounce of +3.3
























Rasmussen poll numbers:



Obama's Poll Bounce following Giffords shooting and Tucson speech...

On January 8, 2011 Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot in Tucson.
On January 12, 2011 President Obama gave a speech at a Tucson memorial service for the victims.
This post will chronicle the Obama poll bounce that emanated from this tragedy...

Real Clear Politics' President Obama's approval poll averages:
1/01/11 approve/disapprove was 45.4 / 47.9 % for a spread of -2.4
1/08/11 approve/disapprove was 46.3 / 48.3 % for a spread of -2.0 (shooting)
1/12/11 approve/disapprove was 47.8 / 47.8 % for a spread of 0.0 (speech)
1/14/11 approve/disapprove was 49.0 / 46.0 % for a spread of +3.0
1/25/11 approve/disapprove was 51.0 / 42.8 % for a spread of +8.2
3/13/11 approve/disapprove was 47.6 / 47.6 % for a spread of 0.0
3/14/11 approve/disapprove was 47.4 / 47.8 % for a spread of -0.4

Data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +4.7 / -5.5 for a spread of 10.2% 










Rasmussen's Presidential Obama's Approval Index:
1/06/11 strongly approve number was -16 with approve/disapprove at -7 (before shooting & speech)
1/25/11 strongly approve number was -04 with approve/disapprove at +5 (after shooting & speech)
2/05/11 strongly approve number was -17 with approve/disapprove at -7
3/04/11 strongly approve number was -20 with approve/disapprove at -12

Rasmussen data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +12%

Pollster.com shows the Obama poll bounce from their poll averages:

Sunday, May 1, 2011

The American population of Mexican Texas: invasion or invited immigration...

In 1821 Mexico achieved independence from Spain.
Texas, with a total population of 3,000, contained only three outposts of Spanish civilization.  These settlements, Neches, Goliad, and San Antonio de Bexar, were remote from Mexico City and were maintained with difficulty against the raids of marauding Indians.
In an effort to populate Texas, Mexico offered land in generous tracts to foreigners, virtually free, in three successive colonization laws of the years 1823, 1824, and 1825.  One of the only requirements imposed on immigrants were those of religion; immigrants had to be, or become, Roman Catholics. 
Clauses in the colonization laws offered inducements; exemptions of foreigners from all taxes for a period of four years.  Further special inducements were added; colonists were given exemption from state and local taxes for a period of ten years. 
The colonization system was expected to develop Texas while eventually enriching Mexico while also serving as a buffer, protecting the southern Mexican states from raids by Indians of the Great Plains.
Only Americans came to Texas in substantial numbers.  Mexicans were not of pioneering stock; they were reluctant to run the risks of Indian dangers of the Texas frontier.  In 1830 not more than 4,000 native Mexicans were settled in Texas, all in or near the three established settlements.  In 1830 there were over 25,000 Americans in Texas.
The Mexican Congress, in alarm, on April 6, 1830 adopted a law prohibiting any further American colonization.  But the law proved a failure.  The Mexican Treasury lacked enforcement money and the Administration was feeble and inept.  The flow of Americans into Texas continued after 1830 almost as if no restrictions had been imposed.  The most important result of the law was a growing friction between the Americans already in Texas and the Mexican government.
A main source of discord was the status of Texas in the Mexican federation.  The Texans, as their numbers grew, demanded separate statehood.  Texas tariff exemptions had also expired in 1830.
The first major uprising occurred in 1832...

History of the Westward Movement
by Frederick Merk

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Declaration of Independence in word count frequency...


1,330 words...

27 - he/his [King George III]
26 - our
11 - us
10 - all
10 - people
10 - right(s)
09 - laws
09 - government(s)
08 - power(s)
08 - state(s)
05 - we
04 - free
04 - independent
04 - colonies
02 - united
01 - country
01 - America



Sunday, April 10, 2011

The "Birther's" guide to Talking Points and Questions about Obama's citizenship and Birth Certificate...

Literary agent Acton & Dystel 1991 promotional booklet:  Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii.

Assocaited Press June 27, 2004: Kenyan-born US Senate hopeful, Barrack Obama, appeared set to take over the Illinois Senate seat...

TP: Asking to see the President's official certified long form Birth Certificate is an exercise of intellectual curiosity.
TP: A Certificate of Live Birth is not a Birth Certificate; The Certificate of Live Birth does not have an embossed seal, signature, or hospital listed.
Q:  Assuming President Obama was born in Hawaii, why are we not allowed to see the Birth Certificate of an elected President of the United States?
TP: Article 2 Section 1 of the United States Constitution requires that the president be a natural born citizen.
Q: Are you considered a Birther if you believe Obama was Hawaiian born but want to see your President's hospital birth record?
TP: Senate Resolution 511 of April 2008 established the legal citizenship of Senator John McCain for his run for president.
TP: Hawaiian Statute 338-17 allows foreign born children of Hawaiian residence to obtain Hawaiian birth certificates.
TP: Hawaiian Statute 338-5 allows a child to obtain a birth certificate based on the signed statement of one relative.
Q: Is there something on Obama's Birth Certificate that he does not want the public to see?
TP: $2.3M has been paid to the law firm Perkins Coie and Robert Bauer to defend against lawsuits challenging Obama's presidential eligibility.
Q:  Is it possible that Obama has a dual British / US citizenship?
TP: Obama's father was a British national (Kenya was a British colony until December 1963).  Under the British Nationality Act of 1948, his father's British nationality is passed on to his son at birth.
TP: In 1961 the only document required for a birth announcement by the Vital Records Office of the Hawaiian Health Bureau of Statistics was a doctor's signature on a Form 1 of Birth.
Q:  Who notified the Hawaiian Health Bureau of Statistics to place the birth notice in the paper?
TP: Hawaii Vital Records Office accepted mail-in forms to register births back in 1961.
Q:  Why was the grandparents' address used in the birth announcement?
TP: Placing a birth notice with the Health Bureau of Statistics would help in acquiring all the benefits guaranteed to a US citizen.
Q:  Who was the doctor that delivered Obama?
TP: Hawaiian Governor Abercrombie claims he was there at the birth of Obama.
Q:  Why was an additional form with the official seal and signature issued in June of 2007 provided to the public instead of the Birth Certificate?
TP: Governor Abercrombie publicly promised to find the Birth Certificate.
Q:  If it is illegal under Hawaiian law for anyone, including the person in question, to see the official long form hospital birth certificate why have them in the first place?
TP: Citizens born in Honolulu the same week as Obama have released their long form Certificate of Live Birth.
Q:  Should the President play a political game of hide and seek with the public instead of releasing the Birth Certificate?
TP: The President has, if not the Constitutional authority, the personal power to release his confidential state records.
TP: Obama's certified Social Security Number, 042-68-4425, according to his selective service card filled out in July 1980, was originally issued to a Jean Paul Ludwig of Connecticut in 1977.  Jean Paul Ludwig was born in 1890 and died in either Hawaii or California in 1981 having two social security numbers issued to him.
Q:  Is there anyone who argues that President Obama's Social Security Number is not 042-68-4425?
TP: The first three digits of a Social Security Number are called the Area Number.  (Prior to 1972 the area number represented the state in which the card was issued.  After 1972 the area number was based on zip codes of the mailing address provided.)  Connecticut's area numbers range from 040-049; Hawaii's area numbers range from 575-576.
TP: Obama's maternal mother Madelyn Dunham worked part-time at the Probate Office of the Honolulu Courthouse that has access to death notices and social security numbers.
TP: Showing the Birth Certificate will answer the questions and end the debate.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Lord Nelson at Trafalgar: Leadership, Honour, Victory

As the Victory approached the allied line, she had already suffered 20 dead and 30 wounded. The dead had gone over the side, if only to prevent their blood making the workspace of battle unusable. The wounded were all ready clogging the surgeons' tables. According to Nelson's specific instructions, their knives were warmed. The coldness of the steel at the amputation of his arm in the Canaries was something he wanted no one else to suffer. The silence was over; the shrieking came up from below.
This wounding of ship and crew, before a single shot had been fired in response, was an entirely conscious part of Nelson's plan. He knew that the spearpoints of the two British columns would take the most terrible battering from the enemy fleet. He had decided that the strongest ships in the squadron, the three-deckers, should lead those columns and that they be captained by men he knew and trusted. And he knew, equally well, that he should be in the lead. That was the essence of the tactics at Trafalgar: a front-loading of fire-power, inspiration, exposure and damage. Thus equipped, the leading ships of the British attacking columns could apply overwhelming force to the center and rear of the allied line; a thrust strong enough to resist the cannonade with which they would be greeted on the way, devastating when it arrived.
The battle would be won in its beginnings, which is why Nelson had to be at the front. He conceived Trafalgar, at its heart, not as the fleet acting as a single disciplined body; but as an action in his image. That was its primitivism. Where he led, others must follow, not by attending to the orders which he would issue - for he would issue none - but by doing what he had shown them to do. It was the most elemental form of command: leadership by example; a throwback to the days of heroism, when warrior kings did not direct, but demonstrated by their own prowess how war was to be conducted. There was honour in exposure, but the honour was not futile. Honour - like zeal, order, daring, love and violence - was an instrument of battle. The heroism, of which those were the constituent elements, was in the service of only one thing: victory.

*excerpt from the book Seize the Fire: Heroism, Duty, and the Battle of Trafalgar
by Adam Nicolson...
...extolling Leadership

Monday, February 7, 2011

Bill Ayers and the Weathermen's Day of Rage: October 8, 1969...

The Weathermen announced a return to Chicago that would "bring the war home... attack the beast from within as the peoples of the world attack it from without." Dubbed by organizers as the Days of Rage, the plan called for thousands of armed, angry young revolutionaries to gather on the evening of October 8 in Lincoln Park then plunge into the city's streets to wreak havoc and "off the pig."
On the appointed night, Bill Ayers, Bernardine Dohrn, and their Weatherman comrades gathered at Lincoln Park. But the army of angry youths - "tens of thousands," the underground press had promised - stayed home. In all, "no more than a couple hundred" people showed up. "My stomach sank, " Ayers wrote years later. "I felt like running away, but I knew I couldn't... There's no turning back now, I said to myself."
The group swiftly set out for Chicago's Gold Coast, the city's wealthiest section. Whooping and hollering, the rabble flung bricks and pipes...
As David Dellinger disapprovingly noted, the Weathermen vandalized "a disproportionately high percentage of ... Volkswagens and other old and low priced cars ... small shops, proletarian beer halls, and lower-middle-class housing."
More than a thousand Chicago Police officers were perched along barricades. Amid the ensuing frenzy were bullets, nightsticks, and tear gas. After two hours, twenty-eight policemen lay wounded and six Weathermen were shot; sixty-eight were arrested and untold others fled with their injuries. Recurring clashes over the next three days led to damage to 1,400 businesses, residences, and automobiles.

-The Strong Man by James Rosen