Friday, May 6, 2011

President Jimmy Carter's Iran Hostage Crisis Poll Bounce

Conventional wisdom says that the Iran Hostage Crisis that began on November 4, 1979 and lasted 444 days until January 20, 1980 is the event that eventually killed the Presidency of Jimmy Carter.  However, statistically and graphically the Hostage Crisis represented a poll bounce for Carter that ran out of steam due to its duration...

Based on Gallup poll numbers:
Date --- Approve / Disapprove / Spread
07/02/79 --- 28 / 59 / -31
10/08/79 --- 29 / 58 / -29
10/15/79 --- 31 / 55 / -24
11/05/79 --- 32 / 55 / -23 (Day 2 of the Hostage Crisis)
11/19/79 --- 38 / 49 / -11
12/03/79 --- 51 / 37 / +14
12/10/79 --- 54 / 35 / +21
01/08/80 --- 58 / 33 / +25
01/28/80 --- 58 / 32 / +26 (Apex of the Bounce)
02/04/80 --- 55 / 36 / +19
03/03/80 --- 52 / 38 / +14
03/10/80 --- 43 / 45 / -02
03/30/80 --- 39 / 51 / -12
09/15/80 --- 37 / 55 / -18