Friday, May 27, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
New York Congressional District 26, NY-26, vote totals over last 5 elections; low voter turnout in 2011
2004 --- 283,079
2006 --- 210,171
2008 --- 270,326
2010 --- 205,756
2011 --- 102,991 (50% less than other off-presidential election years...)
NY-26 special election winner garnered only 48,530 votes, 25% of normal election cycle vote totals...
2006 --- 210,171
2008 --- 270,326
2010 --- 205,756
2011 --- 102,991 (50% less than other off-presidential election years...)
NY-26 special election winner garnered only 48,530 votes, 25% of normal election cycle vote totals...
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Friday, May 13, 2011
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Tracking the Obama Osama poll bounce...
Osama bin Laden was eliminated by a Navy SEAL strike in Pakistan on Sunday May 1, 2011. President Obama conveyed that news to the world late Sunday evening...
Conventional wisdom anticipated the inevitable poll bounce; the only uncertainties were the size and length of the bounce. So far it has been a weak bounce and the pundits are wondering why...
Conventional wisdom anticipated the inevitable poll bounce; the only uncertainties were the size and length of the bounce. So far it has been a weak bounce and the pundits are wondering why...
Friday, May 6, 2011
President Jimmy Carter's Iran Hostage Crisis Poll Bounce
Conventional wisdom says that the Iran Hostage Crisis that began on November 4, 1979 and lasted 444 days until January 20, 1980 is the event that eventually killed the Presidency of Jimmy Carter. However, statistically and graphically the Hostage Crisis represented a poll bounce for Carter that ran out of steam due to its duration...
Based on Gallup poll numbers:
Date --- Approve / Disapprove / Spread
07/02/79 --- 28 / 59 / -31
10/08/79 --- 29 / 58 / -29
10/15/79 --- 31 / 55 / -24
11/05/79 --- 32 / 55 / -23 (Day 2 of the Hostage Crisis)
11/19/79 --- 38 / 49 / -11
12/03/79 --- 51 / 37 / +14
12/10/79 --- 54 / 35 / +21
01/08/80 --- 58 / 33 / +25
01/28/80 --- 58 / 32 / +26 (Apex of the Bounce)
02/04/80 --- 55 / 36 / +19
03/03/80 --- 52 / 38 / +14
03/10/80 --- 43 / 45 / -02
03/30/80 --- 39 / 51 / -12
09/15/80 --- 37 / 55 / -18
Based on Gallup poll numbers:
Date --- Approve / Disapprove / Spread
07/02/79 --- 28 / 59 / -31
10/08/79 --- 29 / 58 / -29
10/15/79 --- 31 / 55 / -24
11/05/79 --- 32 / 55 / -23 (Day 2 of the Hostage Crisis)
11/19/79 --- 38 / 49 / -11
12/03/79 --- 51 / 37 / +14
12/10/79 --- 54 / 35 / +21
01/08/80 --- 58 / 33 / +25
01/28/80 --- 58 / 32 / +26 (Apex of the Bounce)
02/04/80 --- 55 / 36 / +19
03/03/80 --- 52 / 38 / +14
03/10/80 --- 43 / 45 / -02
03/30/80 --- 39 / 51 / -12
09/15/80 --- 37 / 55 / -18
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Gas: price per gallon, cost per gallon, tax per gallon, and profit per gallon of gas
*Based on US Energy Information Administration data
assuming:
$4.00 for a gallon of gas and $110 for a barrel of crude oil...
$2.760 per gallon of gas for the finding and extraction of crude oil
$0.320 per gallon of gas for refining the crude oil into liquefied petroleum
$0.347 per gallon of gas for transportation and storage
$0.133 per gallon of gas for the gas station (equals and balances operating costs)
$0.184 per gallon of gas for the Federal Gas Tax
$0.220 per gallon of gas for the national average of State Gas Taxes
[in New York State the tax per gallon of gas is $0.319:
$0.080 excise tax
$0.152 Petroleum Business Tax
$0.083 Sales Tax
$0.003 Spill Tax
$0.005 Petroleum Testing Fee
$0.079 County Sales Tax average]
$0.030 to 0.020 per gallon of gas is Profit Margin
assuming:
$4.00 for a gallon of gas and $110 for a barrel of crude oil...
$2.760 per gallon of gas for the finding and extraction of crude oil
$0.320 per gallon of gas for refining the crude oil into liquefied petroleum
$0.347 per gallon of gas for transportation and storage
$0.133 per gallon of gas for the gas station (equals and balances operating costs)
$0.184 per gallon of gas for the Federal Gas Tax
$0.220 per gallon of gas for the national average of State Gas Taxes
[in New York State the tax per gallon of gas is $0.319:
$0.080 excise tax
$0.152 Petroleum Business Tax
$0.083 Sales Tax
$0.003 Spill Tax
$0.005 Petroleum Testing Fee
$0.079 County Sales Tax average]
$0.030 to 0.020 per gallon of gas is Profit Margin
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Was there an Obama Birther Bounce?
Claiming that the Birther issue was dominating the news, President Obama released his long form birth certificate on April 25, 2011 in an effort to quell the controversy...
Political pollsters and pundits searched for an immediate Presidential approval bounce:
Real Clear Politics' President Poll Average Data:
4/25/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 45.6 / 48.9% for a spread of -3.3
5/03/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 47.2 / 47.2% for a spread of 0.0
Data suggests a birther bounce of +1.6 / -1.7% for an Obama Birther Bounce of +3.3
Rasmussen poll numbers:
Political pollsters and pundits searched for an immediate Presidential approval bounce:
Real Clear Politics' President Poll Average Data:
4/25/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 45.6 / 48.9% for a spread of -3.3
5/03/2011 Obama's approve/disapprove rating was 47.2 / 47.2% for a spread of 0.0
Data suggests a birther bounce of +1.6 / -1.7% for an Obama Birther Bounce of +3.3
Rasmussen poll numbers:
Obama's Poll Bounce following Giffords shooting and Tucson speech...
On January 8, 2011 Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was shot in Tucson.
On January 12, 2011 President Obama gave a speech at a Tucson memorial service for the victims.
This post will chronicle the Obama poll bounce that emanated from this tragedy...
Real Clear Politics' President Obama's approval poll averages:
1/01/11 approve/disapprove was 45.4 / 47.9 % for a spread of -2.4
1/08/11 approve/disapprove was 46.3 / 48.3 % for a spread of -2.0 (shooting)
1/12/11 approve/disapprove was 47.8 / 47.8 % for a spread of 0.0 (speech)
1/14/11 approve/disapprove was 49.0 / 46.0 % for a spread of +3.0
1/25/11 approve/disapprove was 51.0 / 42.8 % for a spread of +8.2
3/13/11 approve/disapprove was 47.6 / 47.6 % for a spread of 0.0
3/14/11 approve/disapprove was 47.4 / 47.8 % for a spread of -0.4
Data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +4.7 / -5.5 for a spread of 10.2%
Rasmussen's Presidential Obama's Approval Index:
1/06/11 strongly approve number was -16 with approve/disapprove at -7 (before shooting & speech)
1/25/11 strongly approve number was -04 with approve/disapprove at +5 (after shooting & speech)
2/05/11 strongly approve number was -17 with approve/disapprove at -7
3/04/11 strongly approve number was -20 with approve/disapprove at -12
Rasmussen data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +12%
Pollster.com shows the Obama poll bounce from their poll averages:
On January 12, 2011 President Obama gave a speech at a Tucson memorial service for the victims.
This post will chronicle the Obama poll bounce that emanated from this tragedy...
Real Clear Politics' President Obama's approval poll averages:
1/01/11 approve/disapprove was 45.4 / 47.9 % for a spread of -2.4
1/08/11 approve/disapprove was 46.3 / 48.3 % for a spread of -2.0 (shooting)
1/12/11 approve/disapprove was 47.8 / 47.8 % for a spread of 0.0 (speech)
1/14/11 approve/disapprove was 49.0 / 46.0 % for a spread of +3.0
1/25/11 approve/disapprove was 51.0 / 42.8 % for a spread of +8.2
3/13/11 approve/disapprove was 47.6 / 47.6 % for a spread of 0.0
3/14/11 approve/disapprove was 47.4 / 47.8 % for a spread of -0.4
Data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +4.7 / -5.5 for a spread of 10.2%
Rasmussen's Presidential Obama's Approval Index:
1/06/11 strongly approve number was -16 with approve/disapprove at -7 (before shooting & speech)
1/25/11 strongly approve number was -04 with approve/disapprove at +5 (after shooting & speech)
2/05/11 strongly approve number was -17 with approve/disapprove at -7
3/04/11 strongly approve number was -20 with approve/disapprove at -12
Rasmussen data shows a poll bounce that peaked on 1/25/11 at +12%
Pollster.com shows the Obama poll bounce from their poll averages:
Sunday, May 1, 2011
The American population of Mexican Texas: invasion or invited immigration...
In 1821 Mexico achieved independence from Spain.
Texas, with a total population of 3,000, contained only three outposts of Spanish civilization. These settlements, Neches, Goliad, and San Antonio de Bexar, were remote from Mexico City and were maintained with difficulty against the raids of marauding Indians.
In an effort to populate Texas, Mexico offered land in generous tracts to foreigners, virtually free, in three successive colonization laws of the years 1823, 1824, and 1825. One of the only requirements imposed on immigrants were those of religion; immigrants had to be, or become, Roman Catholics.
Clauses in the colonization laws offered inducements; exemptions of foreigners from all taxes for a period of four years. Further special inducements were added; colonists were given exemption from state and local taxes for a period of ten years.
The colonization system was expected to develop Texas while eventually enriching Mexico while also serving as a buffer, protecting the southern Mexican states from raids by Indians of the Great Plains.
Only Americans came to Texas in substantial numbers. Mexicans were not of pioneering stock; they were reluctant to run the risks of Indian dangers of the Texas frontier. In 1830 not more than 4,000 native Mexicans were settled in Texas, all in or near the three established settlements. In 1830 there were over 25,000 Americans in Texas.
The Mexican Congress, in alarm, on April 6, 1830 adopted a law prohibiting any further American colonization. But the law proved a failure. The Mexican Treasury lacked enforcement money and the Administration was feeble and inept. The flow of Americans into Texas continued after 1830 almost as if no restrictions had been imposed. The most important result of the law was a growing friction between the Americans already in Texas and the Mexican government.
A main source of discord was the status of Texas in the Mexican federation. The Texans, as their numbers grew, demanded separate statehood. Texas tariff exemptions had also expired in 1830.
The first major uprising occurred in 1832...
History of the Westward Movement
by Frederick Merk
Texas, with a total population of 3,000, contained only three outposts of Spanish civilization. These settlements, Neches, Goliad, and San Antonio de Bexar, were remote from Mexico City and were maintained with difficulty against the raids of marauding Indians.
In an effort to populate Texas, Mexico offered land in generous tracts to foreigners, virtually free, in three successive colonization laws of the years 1823, 1824, and 1825. One of the only requirements imposed on immigrants were those of religion; immigrants had to be, or become, Roman Catholics.
Clauses in the colonization laws offered inducements; exemptions of foreigners from all taxes for a period of four years. Further special inducements were added; colonists were given exemption from state and local taxes for a period of ten years.
The colonization system was expected to develop Texas while eventually enriching Mexico while also serving as a buffer, protecting the southern Mexican states from raids by Indians of the Great Plains.
Only Americans came to Texas in substantial numbers. Mexicans were not of pioneering stock; they were reluctant to run the risks of Indian dangers of the Texas frontier. In 1830 not more than 4,000 native Mexicans were settled in Texas, all in or near the three established settlements. In 1830 there were over 25,000 Americans in Texas.
The Mexican Congress, in alarm, on April 6, 1830 adopted a law prohibiting any further American colonization. But the law proved a failure. The Mexican Treasury lacked enforcement money and the Administration was feeble and inept. The flow of Americans into Texas continued after 1830 almost as if no restrictions had been imposed. The most important result of the law was a growing friction between the Americans already in Texas and the Mexican government.
A main source of discord was the status of Texas in the Mexican federation. The Texans, as their numbers grew, demanded separate statehood. Texas tariff exemptions had also expired in 1830.
The first major uprising occurred in 1832...
History of the Westward Movement
by Frederick Merk
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