Independents have decided presidency in 8 of the last 10 elections...
2012 PARPA (PerceptionAsReality Poll Average) =
Romney +8.8% among Independents (+16.8% vs McCain 2008)
11/1972 US N+16 61 - 35 (19% of vote)
11/1976 US F+11 54 - 43 (34%) [lost election] (F+4?)
11/1980 US R+25 55 - 30 (26%)
11/1984 US R+27 63 - 36 (26%)
11/1988 US B+12 55 - 43 (27%)
11/1992 US C+6 38-32-30 (26%)
11/1996 US C+8 43-35-17 (26%)
11/2000 US B+2 47 - 45 (27%)
11/2004 US K+1 49 - 48 (26%) [lost election]
11/2008 US O+8 52 - 44 (29%)
2012 PARPA CO = Obama +5.6% (-4.4% vs 2008)
2012 PARPA FL = Romney +4.9% (+11.9% vs McCain 2008)
2012 PARPA IA = Obama +2.6% (-12.4%)
2012 PARPA NH = Romney +2.8% (+22.8%)
2012 PARPA OH = Romney +6.3% (+14.3%)
2012 PARPA VA = Romney +12.9% (+13.9%)
11/2008 AZ O+5 51 - 46 (30% of vote) *based on CNN exit polls
11/2008 CA O+33 64 - 31 (28%)
11/2008 CO O+10 54 - 44 (39%)
11/2008 CT O+18 57 - 39 (31%)
11/2008 FL O+7 52 - 45 (29%)
11/2008 HI O+47 72 - 65 (34%)
11/2008 IN O+11 54 - 43 (24%)
11/2008 IA O+15 56 - 41 (33%)
11/2008 MA O+17 57 - 40 (40%)
11/2008 MI O+10 52 - 42 (29%)
11/2008 MN O+17 56 - 39 (25%)
11/2008 MO M+6 51 - 45 (26%)
11/2008 NV O+13 54 - 41 (32%)
11/2008 NH O+20 59 - 39 (45%)
11/2008 NJ O+14 51 - 47 (28%)
11/2008 NY O+15 56 - 41 (25%)
11/2008 NC M+21 60 - 39 (27%)
11/2008 OR O+23 59 - 36 (37%)
11/2008 OH O+8 52 - 44 (30%)
11/2008 PA O+19 58 - 39 (18%)
11/2008 VA O+1 49 - 48 (27%)
11/2008 WI O+19 58 - 39 (29%)
(vs. 2008)
11/05/12 US R+16 53 - 37 (R+24) Monmouth/SurveyUSA
11/05/12 US R+15 ?? - ?? (R+23) Rasmussen
11/05/12 NH R+13 49 - 36 (R+33) UNH/WMUR
11/05/12 VA R+7 47 - 40 (R+8) WSJ/NBC
11/05/12 VA R+21 ?? - ?? (R+22) Rasmussen
11/04/12 US R+22 59 - 37 (R+30) CNN/ORC
11/04/12 US R+4 46 - 42 (R+12) Pew
11/04/12 US R+7 ?? - ?? (R+15) NBC/WSJ/Marist
11/04/12 US O+1 44 - 43 (R+7) Battleground/GWU
11/04/12 AZ R+8 51 - 43 (R+13) PPP
11/04/12 FL R+2 48 - 46 (R+5) PPP
11/04/12 IA O+8 51 - 43 (R+7) PPP
11/04/12 NH even 49 - 49 (R+20) PPP
11/04/12 NC R+15 55 - 40 (O+6) PPP
11/04/12 OH R+2 49 - 47 (R+10) PPP
11/04/12 PA R+5 48 - 43 (R+24) Morning Call
11/04/12 VA R+2 50 - 48 (R+3) PPP
11/03/12 FL R+6 49 - 43 (R+13) Times/Herald
11/03/12 MI O+3 49 - 36 (R+7) PPP
11/03/12 MN R+13 49 - 36 (R+30) AFF
11/03/12 NH R+22 54 - 32 (R+42) WMUR/UNH
11/03/12 PA O+4 49 - 45 (R+15) PPP
11/03/12 WI O+17 57 - 40 (R+2) PPP
11/02/12 US R+7 51 - 44 (R+15) ABC/WAPO
11/02/12 US R+3 ?? - ?? (R+11) Rasmussen
11/02/12 CT R+2 47 - 45 (R+20) PPP
11/02/12 IA R+5 43 - 38 (R+20) Gravis
11/02/12 MA R+7 52 - 45 (R+24) PPP
11/02/12 MI R+12 ?? - ?? (R+22) PPP
11/02/12 NH R+2 50 - 48 (R+22) Gravis
11/02/12 OH R+2 ?? - ?? (R+10) CNN
11/01/12 CO O+2 49 - 47 (R+8) CNN/ORC
11/01/12 IA O+7 41 - 34 (R+8) NBC/WSJ/Marist
11/01/12 IA O+12 52 - 40 (R+3) Rasmussen
11/01/12 NV R+7 49 - 42 (R+20) SurveyUSA
11/01/12 WI O+4 48 - 44 (R+15) NBC/WSJ/Marist
11/01/12 WI O+8 51 - 43 (R+11) Rasmussen
10/31/12 US R+7 46 - 39 R+15 FOXN
10/31/12 FL R+6 50 - 44 R+13 Gravis
10/31/12 FL R+5 49 - 44 R+12 CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
10/31/12 IA O+2 42 - 40 R+13 Iowa University
10/31/12 MN even 41 - 41 R+17 SurveyUSA
10/31/12 NC O+3 49 - 46 O+24 PPP
10/31/12 OH R+6 49 - 43 R+14 CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
10/31/12 OH even 45 - 45 R+8 PPP
10/31/12 OH O+14 46 - 32 O+6 Cincinnati University
10/31/12 PA R+16 48 - 32 R+35 Franklin & Marshall
10/31/12 VA R+21 57 - 36 R+22 CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
10/31/12 VA R+26 59 - 33 R+27 Roanoke College
10/30/12 US R+12 51 - 39 (R+20) CBS/NYT
10/30/12 US R+12 51 - 39 (R+20) NPR
10/30/12 FL R+5 45 - 40 (R+12) SurveyUSA
10/30/12 NC R+12 50 - 38 (O+9) SurveyUSA
10/30/12 OH R+11 48 - 37 (R+19) SurveyUSA
10/29/12 US R+15 55 - 40 (R+23) ABC/WaPo
10/29/12 US R+8 48 - 40 (R+16) Pew
10/29/12 US R+10 50 - 40 (R+18) Politico/GWU
10/29/12 CO O+8 50 - 42 (R+2) ARG
10/29/12 FL R+5 51 - 46 (R+12) CNN
10/29/12 NC R+17 44 - 27 (O+4) Elon University
10/28/12 MN O+6 43 - 37 (R+11) Mason Dixon
10/28/12 NH R+2 47 - 45 (R+22) PPP
10/28/12 OH R+12 53 - 41 (R+20) Gravis
10/28/12 OH R+4 50 - 46 (R+12) PPP
10/27/12 MO R+23 57 - 34 (R+17) Mason Dixon
10/27/12 NJ O+6 48 - 42 (R+8) Philadelphia Inquirer
10/27/12 NY R+3 44 - 41 (R+18) SurveyUSA
10/27/12 PA O+21 56 - 35 (O+2) Philadelphia Inquirer
10/27/12 VA R+27 58 - 31 (R+28) Gravis
10/26/12 IA R+12 48 - 36 (R+27) Gravis
10/26/12 NV R+35 65 - 30 (R+48) Gravis
10/26/12 NC R+28 61 - 38 (R+7) Gravis
10/26/12 OH O+5 49 - 44 (R+3) CNN
10/26/12 OH R+21 57 - 36 (R+29) ARG
10/25/12 CO O+8 51 - 43 (R+2) PPP
10/25/12 FL R+10 52 - 42 (R+17) Gravis
10/25/12 NC O+1 46 - 45 (O+22) PPP
10/25/12 VA R+22 53 - 31 (R+23) FOXN
10/24/12 CT O+6 50 - 44 (R+12) Quinnipiac
10/24/12 NV R+9 53 - 44 (R+22) PPP
10/24/12 OH R+8 47 - 39 (R+16) SurveyUSA
10/24/12 OH R+15 53 - 38 (R+23) Time
10/23/12 CT O+2 45 - 43 (R+16) SurveyUSA
10/23/12 NV O+6 50 - 44 (R+7) ARG
10/23/12 NH even 48 - 48 (R+20) ARG
10/22/12 Boca Raton Debate
10/22/12 US R+19 52 - 33 (R+27) Monmouth/SurveyUSA
10/22/12 NH R+1 37 - 36 (R+21) Granite State Poll
10/22/12 OH R+7 49 - 42 (R+15) CBS/Quinnipiac
10/22/12 PA O+18 52 - 34 (R+1) Morning Call
10/21/12 FL O+1 47 - 46 (R+6) PPP
10/20/12 FL R+4 44 - 40 (R+11) SurveyUSA
10/20/12 NJ R+14 51 - 37 (R+28) SurveyUSA
10/20/12 OH R+19 52 - 33 (R+27) Gravis
10/20/12 OH R+7 49 - 42 (R+15) PPP
10/19/12 US R+1 38 - 37 (R+9) Hartford Courant/UCONN
10/19/12 FL even 46 - 46 (R+7) CNN
10/19/12 FL R+8 51 - 43 (R+15) FOXN
10/19/12 IA O+4 46 - 42 (R+11) PPP
10/19/12 NH O+6 51 - 45 (R+14) PPP
10/19/12 OH R+24 52 - 28 (R+32) FOXN
10/19/12 OR O+4 40 - 36 (R+19) SurveyUSA
10/18/12 CO O+9 51 - 42 (R+1) PPP
10/18/12 MI R+9 39 - 30 (R+19) Denno Research
10/18/12 MN R+3 45 - 42 (R+20) SurveyUSA
10/18/12 OH R+8 41 - 33 (R+16) SurveyUSA
10/17/12 CT O+5 46 - 41 (R+13) Siena
10/17/12 NV R+18 52 - 34 (R+31) SurveyUSA
10/17/12 NJ O+2 46 - 44 (R+12) Neighborhood Research
10/16/12 Hempstead Debate
10/16/12 NJ R+9 51 - 42 (R+23) Quinnipiac
10/16/12 PA O+7 50 - 43 (R+12) Quinnipiac
10/15/12 US R+8 48 - 40 (R+16) IBD/TIPP
10/15/12 IA R+4 48 - 44 (R+19) ARG
10/15/12 NC R+14 54 - 40 (O+7) PPP
10/15/12 PA R+10 47 - 37 (R+29) Morning Call
10/15/12 PA O+10 51 - 41 (R+9) PPP
10/15/12 VA R+12 52 - 40 (R+13) ARG
10/14/12 FL R+8 51 - 43 (R+15) PPP
10/13/12 AZ O+10 41 - 31 (O+5) Behavior Research Center
10/13/12 OH R+5 50 - 45 (R+13) PPP
10/12/12 FL R+4 49 - 45 (R+11) ARG
10/12/12 NH R+3 48 - 45 (R+23) ARG
10/11/12 VP Debate
10/11/12 US R+3 44 - 41 (R+11) Monmouth/SurveyUSA
10/11/12 CA R+9 44 - 35 (R+42) SurveyUSA
10/11/12 FL R+13 52 - 39 (R+20) TBT/MiamiHerald/Mason-Dixon
10/10/12 US R+12 44 - 32 (R+20) FOXN
10/10/12 US R+20 54 - 34 (R+28) IBD/TIPP
10/10/12 NV O+7 52 - 45 (R+6) PPP
10/10/12 OH R+9 44 - 35 (R+17) SurveyUSA
10/09/12 CO O+1 48 - 47 (R+9) ARG
10/09/12 MN O+8 49 - 41 (R+9) PPP
10/09/12 OH R+20 57 - 37 (R+28) ARG
10/09/12 OH O+4 50 - 46 (R+4) CNN
10/09/12 PA R+1 31 - 30 (R+20) Siena
10/08/12 US R+4 46 - 42 (R+12) Pew
10/08/12 US R+16 51 - 35 (R+24) Politico/GWU/Battleground
10/08/12 MA O+1 48 - 47 (R+18) WesternNEUniversity
10/08/12 VA even 46 - 46 (R+1) PPP
10/06/12 WI O+9 51 - 42 (R+10) PPP
10/05/12 NV O+5 48 - 43 (R+8) Gravis
10/04/12 CT O+3 48 - 45 (R+15) Quinnipiac
10/04/12 HI O+3 44 - 41 (R+44) Civil Beat/MRG
10/03/12 Denver Debate
10/03/12 AZ O+8 52 - 44 (O+3) PPP
10/03/12 MO R+6 51 - 45 (even) PPP
10/03/12 NJ O+8 47 - 39 (O+4) Rutgers
10/02/12 US R+8 49 - 41 (R+16) National Journal
10/02/12 US R+2 47 - 45 (R+10) Quinnipiac
10/02/12 MO R+16 51 -35 (R+10) WeAskAmerica
10/02/12 NV R+15 50 - 35 (R+28) WeAskAmerica
10/02/12 VA R+13 45 - 32 (R+14) Roanoke
10/01/12 US R+8 49 - 41 (R+16) CNN/ORC
10/01/12 US R+4 47 - 43 (R+12) Politico/GWU/Battleground
10/01/12 IA O+7 45 - 38 (R+8) WeAskAmerica
10/01/12 MI even 43 - 43 (R+10) WeAskAmerica
10/01/12 NC R+15 55 - 40 (O+6) ARG
10/01/12 NC R+18 54 - 36 (O+3) PPP
10/01/12 OH R+1 42 - 41 (R+9) PPP
09/30/12 MA R+3 33 - 30 (R+20) Boston Globe
09/28/12 NH O+9 51 - 42 (R+11) ARG
09/28/12 VA O+3 48 - 45 (O+2) ARG
09/27/12 US O+4 43 - 39 (R+4) FOXN
09/27/12 CT R+7 50 - 43 (R+25) PPP
09/26/12 OH R+1 47 - 46 (R+9) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
09/26/12 FL R+3 49 - 46 (R+10) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac
09/26/12 IA even 47 - 47 (R+15) PPP
Thursday, September 27, 2012
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